Mon 29th Nov: Wanted....Dollar bulls
Virtually every day the US dollar seems to hitting new lows. According to Intelligence Capital Advisiors it achieved a rare distinction last week- it even declined against the Zimbabwean dollar.
The dollar is starting to resemble the seven stone weakling who gets sand kicked in his face. Last week Russia hinted that it wanted to diversify it's foreign exchange reserves away from the dollar and China said it was up to the US to put it's affairs in order. It is a bit of a humiliation for the so called capitalist behemoth to get economic lessons from two (barely) ex communist powers. When negative opinion is so widespread about any asset price, the chances are there is scope for a short term rally. But when Alan Greenspan and legendary investor Warren Buffet are both arguing that the dollar should fall ove the long term- it is a very brave man who takes the opposite view.
The search for dollar bulls continues as the bears take charge over the US economy, refuting to take in to consideration any kind of positive data. The World’s most dominating currency continued to be battered falling below 1.33 against the Euro as traders panicked at signs that Asian Central Banks might become more reluctant to fund the US current account deficit.
The dollar did sustain a brief rally when the Chinese Central Bank denied the rumors of reallocating their forex reserve portfolio in favour of Euro, helping the Greenback rise to 1.3205 against the Euro and 1.8850 against the Pound.
However, the rally was short lived as comments from Indonesian Deputy Governor hinting towards a shift in their forex reserve, reaffirmed the fears of Asian Central Banks dumping the US assets to avoid large losses as the dollar's value falls.
The Yen’s incessant rise hails from the silent reaction from the BoJ against the falling dollar and is now expecting a move to 101 during the week.
Though there have been comments from the monetary commissioner of EU indicating comfort for the Euro exchange rate at these levels, the economic indicators released (falling growth projections, reducing business sentiment, tumbling economic sentiment) are not supporting the statement; in turn calling for a more aggressive intervention from the ECB - which would eventually take the form of secret Euro selling via German and French commercial banks.
With projections of the bull-run extending further, we suggest that non-dollar importers should hedge their very short term import transactions; while exporters should hedge their receivables using the step up approach once it nears 1.3350.
US stocks held close to the flat line in an abbreviated post-Thanksgiving session on Friday, capping a modest, uninterrupted weeklong rally on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up 2 points to 10,522 for a fractional rise on the week. The Nasdaq Composite eased 1 point to 2,102.
The dollar is starting to resemble the seven stone weakling who gets sand kicked in his face. Last week Russia hinted that it wanted to diversify it's foreign exchange reserves away from the dollar and China said it was up to the US to put it's affairs in order. It is a bit of a humiliation for the so called capitalist behemoth to get economic lessons from two (barely) ex communist powers. When negative opinion is so widespread about any asset price, the chances are there is scope for a short term rally. But when Alan Greenspan and legendary investor Warren Buffet are both arguing that the dollar should fall ove the long term- it is a very brave man who takes the opposite view.
The search for dollar bulls continues as the bears take charge over the US economy, refuting to take in to consideration any kind of positive data. The World’s most dominating currency continued to be battered falling below 1.33 against the Euro as traders panicked at signs that Asian Central Banks might become more reluctant to fund the US current account deficit.
The dollar did sustain a brief rally when the Chinese Central Bank denied the rumors of reallocating their forex reserve portfolio in favour of Euro, helping the Greenback rise to 1.3205 against the Euro and 1.8850 against the Pound.
However, the rally was short lived as comments from Indonesian Deputy Governor hinting towards a shift in their forex reserve, reaffirmed the fears of Asian Central Banks dumping the US assets to avoid large losses as the dollar's value falls.
The Yen’s incessant rise hails from the silent reaction from the BoJ against the falling dollar and is now expecting a move to 101 during the week.
Though there have been comments from the monetary commissioner of EU indicating comfort for the Euro exchange rate at these levels, the economic indicators released (falling growth projections, reducing business sentiment, tumbling economic sentiment) are not supporting the statement; in turn calling for a more aggressive intervention from the ECB - which would eventually take the form of secret Euro selling via German and French commercial banks.
With projections of the bull-run extending further, we suggest that non-dollar importers should hedge their very short term import transactions; while exporters should hedge their receivables using the step up approach once it nears 1.3350.
US stocks held close to the flat line in an abbreviated post-Thanksgiving session on Friday, capping a modest, uninterrupted weeklong rally on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up 2 points to 10,522 for a fractional rise on the week. The Nasdaq Composite eased 1 point to 2,102.


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