Higher Oil and Gold prices after Chinese revaluation and terrorist scares…
After the flurry of activity last week and the unfortunate events of last Thursday in which no one was hurt thankfully, today begins quieter with the only prominent out for release is US existing home sales for June (3.00pm BST).
Last week’s Q1 GDP growth came out as low as expected growing q-o-q 0.4% and 1.7% y-o-y, the slowest quarterly growth in the UK economy since December 1993.
Property website Hometrack showed that UK house prices fell for a 13th month in July, reinforcing speculation that the Bank of England will cut the base rate as soon as next week.
Stateside, there are a number of figure releases this week including Consumer Confidence for July which probably rose 106.2 it is forecast, the highest in three years (due at 3.00 BST tomorrow). This will reinforce the antithetical effect on US interest rates, signalling their probable continued hike.
The US government will announce today the amount of two-year notes it will sell in two days. The treasury will probably sell $20bn of the securities. Yields on two-year notes are close to its highest in almost four years on expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates to keep inflation from accelerating. Two-year securities are among the most sensitive to changes in interest rates.
Lastly, declines in treasuries may be tempered by expectations that durable good orders declined last month (released at 1.30 BST Wednesday).
On the commodities front, crude oil was little changed after rising on speculation that a stronger Chinese currency will encourage refiners to buy more crude oil as imports gets cheaper. Exxon Mobil Corp., B.P. Plc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, the world’s three biggest publicly traded oil companies, this week will probably report record Q2 profits because of surging oil and gas prices. World oil consumption is forecast to rise 2% this year, led by rising demand in the US and China, the world’s largest consumers, OPEC said in a forecast last week. They added that demand in China will rise a whopping 6.1% from a year ago.
Gold may rise for a second straight week as well on speculation that a revaluation of the Chinese Yuan will increase jewellery sales in Asia and demand for the precious metal as a hedge against a falling dollar. Gold for August delivery rose $3.70 ounce last week, surprising the majority of analysts who expected a decline.
The yuan looks to be the biggest story driving commodities such as gold coupled with the speculation of more terrorist attacks which may disrupt global financial markets.
Watch out also for the German IFO-business climate survey out at 9.00am BST tomorrow. Business confidence in Germany, France and Italy, the biggest EU economies probably rose in July as the euro’s decline helped exports.
Last week’s Q1 GDP growth came out as low as expected growing q-o-q 0.4% and 1.7% y-o-y, the slowest quarterly growth in the UK economy since December 1993.
Property website Hometrack showed that UK house prices fell for a 13th month in July, reinforcing speculation that the Bank of England will cut the base rate as soon as next week.
Stateside, there are a number of figure releases this week including Consumer Confidence for July which probably rose 106.2 it is forecast, the highest in three years (due at 3.00 BST tomorrow). This will reinforce the antithetical effect on US interest rates, signalling their probable continued hike.
The US government will announce today the amount of two-year notes it will sell in two days. The treasury will probably sell $20bn of the securities. Yields on two-year notes are close to its highest in almost four years on expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates to keep inflation from accelerating. Two-year securities are among the most sensitive to changes in interest rates.
Lastly, declines in treasuries may be tempered by expectations that durable good orders declined last month (released at 1.30 BST Wednesday).
On the commodities front, crude oil was little changed after rising on speculation that a stronger Chinese currency will encourage refiners to buy more crude oil as imports gets cheaper. Exxon Mobil Corp., B.P. Plc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, the world’s three biggest publicly traded oil companies, this week will probably report record Q2 profits because of surging oil and gas prices. World oil consumption is forecast to rise 2% this year, led by rising demand in the US and China, the world’s largest consumers, OPEC said in a forecast last week. They added that demand in China will rise a whopping 6.1% from a year ago.
Gold may rise for a second straight week as well on speculation that a revaluation of the Chinese Yuan will increase jewellery sales in Asia and demand for the precious metal as a hedge against a falling dollar. Gold for August delivery rose $3.70 ounce last week, surprising the majority of analysts who expected a decline.
The yuan looks to be the biggest story driving commodities such as gold coupled with the speculation of more terrorist attacks which may disrupt global financial markets.
Watch out also for the German IFO-business climate survey out at 9.00am BST tomorrow. Business confidence in Germany, France and Italy, the biggest EU economies probably rose in July as the euro’s decline helped exports.
posted by Drs Search @ 8:47 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
Links to this post:
Create a Link
<< Home