Will the recent oil surge affect inflation trends?
Inflation- this is the question most analysts will be focusing in on in the coming week.
The nominal price of crude oil hit a record level of $66 a barrel in New York trade on Friday. The markets had reacted to earlier warnings of terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer.
With Iran declaring it was renewing it’s nuclear programme, analysts fear that potential UN sanctions could affect supply. Some have even forecasted $100 a barrel by year end if a supply shock were to happen in the Middle East.
US June inflation figures are due out tomorrow. The consensus forecast suggest a rise of 0.4% on the month, which would push year-on-year headline inflation from 2.5% to 3%.
Core inflation should remain relatively benign as the discounting on new cars by the larger US producers results in lower prices. This is also set to help reverse the recent drag on US manufacturing output which is due out tomorrow as well. July’s figures are expected to rise by 0.3% on the month.
The upsurge in higher petrol prices and energy costs are likely to have put upward pressure on UK inflation figures for July, which are due out tomorrow. This is widely expected to be somewhat offset by heavy discounting by retailers, largely in clothing and footwear.
The recent downbeat report by the British Retail Consortium is likely to be confirmed when official retail sales statistics for July are due on Thursday. Despite of an increase in sales days the forecasted consensus is that retail sales will decline by 0.5% on the month.
Labour market stats are due out on Wednesday with unemployment in the UK expected to rise again. The claimant count has risen seven times in the last ten months and the trend is estimated to continue.
The nominal price of crude oil hit a record level of $66 a barrel in New York trade on Friday. The markets had reacted to earlier warnings of terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer.
With Iran declaring it was renewing it’s nuclear programme, analysts fear that potential UN sanctions could affect supply. Some have even forecasted $100 a barrel by year end if a supply shock were to happen in the Middle East.
US June inflation figures are due out tomorrow. The consensus forecast suggest a rise of 0.4% on the month, which would push year-on-year headline inflation from 2.5% to 3%.
Core inflation should remain relatively benign as the discounting on new cars by the larger US producers results in lower prices. This is also set to help reverse the recent drag on US manufacturing output which is due out tomorrow as well. July’s figures are expected to rise by 0.3% on the month.
The upsurge in higher petrol prices and energy costs are likely to have put upward pressure on UK inflation figures for July, which are due out tomorrow. This is widely expected to be somewhat offset by heavy discounting by retailers, largely in clothing and footwear.
The recent downbeat report by the British Retail Consortium is likely to be confirmed when official retail sales statistics for July are due on Thursday. Despite of an increase in sales days the forecasted consensus is that retail sales will decline by 0.5% on the month.
Labour market stats are due out on Wednesday with unemployment in the UK expected to rise again. The claimant count has risen seven times in the last ten months and the trend is estimated to continue.
posted by Drs Search @ 8:45 AM
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