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"Follow the money" was Deep Throat's (aka W Mark Felt) suggestion for solving the cover up of the Watergate burglary. Wise Money's blog follows this adage by keeping you informed of events in the financial world. Over 800 daily postings since 2004.

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Currency markets Look ahead to US Data

The US Dollar dipped yesterday as analysts' estimates were not expecting the US data releases to be particularly dollar friendly this week. We start off with today's durable goods orders and could see a drop from 2.9% to -2.4% as Boeing orders are expected to drag the total level lower.

US Existing home sales this afternoon and unless we see a meaningful pickup in the housing market, we believe that the Federal Reserve will continue to keep rates on hold. January’s Recent comments from Ben Bernanke suggests that unemployment may be able to remain as low as 4.5 percent and still not induce inflation.

If this is true, then the Federal Reserve may not be tempted to raise interest rates pre-emptively.

We saw the Euro as one of the main benefactors of yesterday's analyst estimates along with optimistic comments from ECB member Quaden who reaffirmed the central bank’s hawkish stance by saying that the “ECB has a posture of strong vigilance” adding also that the current level of interest rates does not hamper growth or investment.

Bank of England member Blanchflower mentioned yesterday that he expects inflation to fall over the next few months and even dip below the central bank’s 2 percent target in the next one or two years.

House prices according to the Hometrack index grew by 0.7 percent, which was the fastest pace of growth since May 2004. Sterling remained unchanged against the USD and slightly weaker against the Euro.

In other markets the New Zealand dollar rose to a 14-month high against the dollar after robust business confidence data led to increased expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand would raise interest rates at its policy-setting meeting next week.

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