The road to recovery

The US Treasury announced yesterday that it will spend at least $250 bn on preferred equity from major financial institutions.

The plan is in some ways a turnaround for the government which initially seemed to be focusing on the $700 bn programme authorized by Congress on buying up illiquid assets that were clogging the banking system.

German's ZEW sentiment survey released yesterday reflected a deterioration in confidence in September, the height of the financial crisis.

The ZEW said that perspectives for economic development have significantly deteriorated due to the financial crisis but a separate analysis following the bank rescue package reveals a less pronounced decline in expectations.

In the UK CPI released yesterday posted a higher than expected 5.2% - the highest since 1997. Whist on the surface a high reading may be deemed to be problematic for the Bank of England the MPC's focus seems to be shifting to that of growth concerns as inflation is forecast to cool by mid-2009.

In the same breath, UK unemployment rose to the highest level in almost two years, slightly ahead of expectations as market participants forecast a significant deterioration in the labour market.

Risk appetite continues to play a significant role in the market, whether it be equities, cash, commodities or currency. Sentiment for sterling remains positive as the UK government continues to lead the way in dealing with the current challenges in the market.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

Jitters continue as House vote looms

As expected, approval was obtained from the US Senate last night for Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to push ahead with his Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) .

The bill received a 74-25 vote with 40 Democrats, 33 Republicans and independent Joe Lieberman voting in favour of the plan. Backed by the Bush administration, the package now goes to the House of Representatives, which rejected Paulson's initial version of the proposal.

Once the bill had been passed, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd joined the Treasury Secretary in commenting on his hopes that the vote would send a strong signal to global markets.

While the US equity indices were unable to finish in positive territory they did rebound off the lows of the sessions. The Dow ended just 20 points lower and the S&P500 posted a marginal decline of 5 points. It seems that markets are likely to remains nervous until the new House vote which is expected on Friday.

At 12:45 today we have the ECB rate announcement. As the euro-region slides towards its first recession, Trichet is finding it difficult to protect the economy from the global credit crunch but at the same time having to fight inflation.

It is predicted by all 58 economist surveyed by Bloomberg that the benchmark rate will remain unchanged today at 4.25 percent, with a cut predicted by December.

Yesterday in Europe the manufacturing PMI dropped to 45 in Sep down from 47.6 in Aug. Unemployment also rose to 7.5% in Aug being the highest level since Apr 2007. This is further support that the euro-zone is heading for a recession after the economy contracted in the second quarter of 2008.

In the UK the manufacturing PMI contracted at the fastest pace in 16 years to 41 in Sep compared to 45 in Aug, while the service industry stagnated in the 3 months up to July for the first time since 2002.

It was then the turn of the US to provide an update on the state of their manufacturing sector. The ISM factory index for Sep dropped to 43.5, the lowest level since Oct 2001. There was also the release of the ADP employment change, which showed that US workers continue to lose their jobs with an estimated 8k job cuts made in Sept.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.