Sterling holds steady for now

Not much movement overall by Sterling as the markets paused on selling the Pound. 

This morning we have in fact made some gains back and as we stand we are holding just above the key 1.10 level and 1.50 on GB Pound/US Dollar The 1.50 level on GBP/USD is a crucial level to hold above and will help to steady the ship and prevent further selling pressure. 

This morning we have seen UK PMI data come in much stronger than expected rising to 58.40 compared to the 55 expected and giving the best reading for over 3 years. 

On top of this consumer confidence rose to 80 and a 2 year high as consumers look ahead to a brighter 2010 for the UK economy. The good data this morning was a huge breath of fresh air for sterling giving it a welcome break from the selling momentum.

EUR/USD has picked up this morning beyond 1.36 following the leaked news of an austerity package for Greece totalling 4.8 billion euros. 

There is still uncertainty on the level of support that Greece will receive from the EU and the Greek PM tactically said that the cabinet may turn to the IMF if the EU does not give support. Nice move. If we get further clarity on the level of EU support then this should lift the euro further. 

In addition it will help lead to selling pressure on USD and the JPY and hopefully boost the Pound as confidence improves.

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Pound is pummelled in currency markets

A disastrous start for the Pound in the currency markets continues the bearish trend witnessed last week. 

The pound has dropped to a near 3 month low against the euro, a 10 month low against the US Dollar and a near year low against the JP Yen. 

The UK is under heavy selling pressure with unwanted attention and unease with the fiscal deficit combined with further indications that the general election will result in a hung parliament. 

A hung parliament would severely limit the ability of a divided parliament to act decisively on the UK’s deficit spelling danger for sterling. 

In addition to this the potential purchase of the Asian life insurance unit of AIG from Prudential is causing large negative M&A flows out of sterling and into the USD.  So all in all not a bright picture for the pound which is looking alarmingly fragile and dropping sharply.

The Greece situation is still ongoing- a few rumblings of solutions have dissolved into nothing leaving the markets still uncertain and leaning to the safe havens of the USD, JPY and AUD performing well on the hint of another rate rise.

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Markets slide as Greece scares investors

Stock markets fell yesterday as fear of contagion from Greece’s debt disaster combined with depressing US economic data to send share prices down.
The FTSE 100 slid 1.2 per cent to close down by 64.70 points at 5,278.22 amid fears that Greece’s problems could derail the already-fragile economic recovery. The CAC 40 in Paris fell even further, down 2 per cent, while Germany’s DAX was off more than 1.5 per cent.
Standard & Poor's warned on Wednesday night that it may slash Greece’s credit rating to close to junk within a month, despite new austerity measures designed to cut the country’s budget deficit.
The European Commission’s decision yesterday to revise down growth forecasts for Britain alone did nothing to calm shareholders’ nerves. The commission said that UK gross domestic product (GDP) was likely to increase by 0.6 per cent this year, rather than 0.9 per cent. 

 

However, prospects for the rest of Europe were not much brighter. The forecasts showed that economic growth across the Continent would be uncertain and dwarfed by emerging Asian rivals this year.
America’s main stock markets lost well over 1 per cent in early trading, with the Dow Jones industrial average shedding almost 174 points before recovering to close down 0.51 per cent at 10,321.03.
The US Labor Department’s tally of new claims for unemployment benefits also depressed investor sentiment. It said that new dole claims rose by 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 496,000 people in the week to February 20. Economists had expected claims to fall to 455,000.
In his second day of testimony to a congressional committee, Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, cautioned against “over-interpreting” the jobs data, which he said may have been skewed by a backlog of claims caused by recent winter storms.
Mr Bernanke also said that the Fed was investigating the role played by Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street companies in Greece’s debt dilemma. 

 

American banks entered into currency swaps with Greece almost ten years ago that allowed the country to postpone recognising its debt.
“Using these instruments in a way that potentially destabilises a company or a country is counterproductive,” the Fed chairman said. “We’ll certainly be evaluating what we learn from the activities of the holding companies that we supervise here.”

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US Dollar shines after positive minutes

Yesterday the markets digested the minutes of the February interest rate meetings for both the UK and the US. 

Firstly looking at the UK the vote was a unanimous 9-0 to keep interest rates on hold and also to hold QE at £200 billion. The feedback from the MPC was ambiguous in the sense that the decision was unanimous and yet the comments were that it was a "finely balanced" decision to keep QE on hold. 

The unanimous decision gave Sterling a boost which was then tempered by weaker than expected employment numbers. Going forward this does not change the sentiment for sterling which will struggle to appreciate until the outlook for the UK warrants a more hawkish approach from the MPC.

Over to the US and the FOMC upgraded their forecasts for the US economy reflecting a more bullish tone from the Fed. 

They also discussed trying to shrink their reserves over time although no time frame was announced to do this. The positive tone from the Fed with improved economic sentiment in the US coupled with loitering fear in the markets helped to push the USD higher.

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Euro bashing rests for porfit taking

However the pause in its recent decline is more to do with profit taking than a reversal of the currency’s fortunes. 

Today's Financial Times suggests that £7 billion of short trades are weighing against the eurozone's immediate currency prospects.


We did see both Euro and Sterling hit 8 month lows overnight as the Asian markets rushed to buy the perceived safe haven US Dollar but once again, proximity to support levels was enough to bounce both rates as Europe entered the fray. 

The concern for Euro bulls is that recovery attempts seem very limited in scope and small in magnitude. 

The rally for the single currency in the US last night was snuffed out by the combination of a late sell off in equities and an expectation that Bernanke’s testimony this evening could very well signal a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook, with speculation that he might lay groundwork for a tightening of monetary policy.

Yesterday’s markets, outside the late US fluctuations, were largely extremely boring with traders waiting for developments (either good or bad) on the Eurozone Sovereign issue. 

Nothing much happened. The Spanish Finance minister was in London talking to bond holders and the Portuguese and Greek governments were both vocal in their defence of their respective fiscal positions Data again is light today with UK trades and US wholesale inventories the highlights. 

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Fear grips the markets

Volatility in the money markets over the last 24 hours has been staggering! 

The main economic events yesterday were related to the UK and European central bank decisions- however this was not the driver for the volatility.

The exact location of the fear was GPS…Greece, Portugal and Spain. 

There was a scramble for safer shores in the USD and the YEN and out of the euro and higher yielders and to some extent the pound as panic swept the markets. 

Escalating debt concerns are increasing in these European economies and this drove stocks and commodities lower- debts spreads between the good eggs and bad eggs widened considerably and could increase further.

The market clearly needs some reassurance in regards to the bad economic apples of Europe and ECB president Trichet did little to reassure the markets yesterday so we await a viable plan from each economy.

It seems the simmering problems perceived for some time within Europe are finally coming to the boil and the question is can each economy sort out their own mess? 

You could also throw Ireland into the equation to formulate the PIGS of Europe- if they cannot reduce their debt- will the ECB and IMF offer a trough for aid? 

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Currency markets future directions

US Dollar and Sterling should continue to improve against the Euro and Yen for the short term at least.

With the presumption being that the improvement in performance for both economies can be traced back to their recently acquired, more competitive exchange rates. 

Large moves in the next day or so, do look limited however, given the upcoming monetary meeting in Europe and the UK and given that much of the Euro’s recent weakness has been as a direct result of negative news from Greece. 

It has to be assumed that most, if not all, the bad news has been priced in by markets now and the currency might be set for a bit of a lift as it benefits from an increase in risk appetite. 

The Euro itself looks unlikely to surge however, given the likelihood of IMF intervention in Greece’s affairs and for those precious metal aficionados out there, it is worth noting that at present, Greece holds over 71% of its foreign reserves in gold, which at the end of December stood at just shy of $4 billion. Watch the gold price after the IMF have been in …..

Overnight the Reserve Bank of Australia surprised all but a few by leaving their official interest rates at 3.75 % against the expectation of a 0.25% increase, citing the lack of credible information so far on the effects of the previous increases, thus judging it appropriate to hold rates steady for the time being. 

The Aus$ dropped sharply on the release but stabilised on a later caveat from the RBA that if the economy continued to improve, as has been witnessed over the recent period, rates would need to be raised further. The currency held at around 88 cents versus the US$ but given the anticipated continued demand from China for global commodities.

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Greeks bonds tragedy in the making

The “Greek tragedy” continues with rumours swirling that the Greeks  have approached China looking to offload €25 billion of their debt. 

The European dream is starting to crumble when on the back of the warning from the ECB that the Greeks will have to sort out their own finances they look instead to the East for a solution.

The euro has again tumbled on the back of this and €1.40 is now the line in the sand. The spread of the 10-year Greek bond yield over benchmark German Bunds also hit a high not seen since Greece adopted the euro in 2001

The US Dollar moved higher yesterday evening after the Fed's monetary policy meeting ended. 

As expected, the central bank left interest rates on hold at the historically low range of 0 – 0.25%, and has been worded in previous statements indicated that it will continue to do so for an “extended period". 

However, it was noted that one member of the committee, Thomas Hoening, voted to eliminate the extended period phrase. It also confirmed the continued plan to unwind its support to financial and credit markets. 

Also of note was its presentation of a brighter economic outlook for the economy than highlighted in its previous statement in December.

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Euro plunges to 1.40 against US Dollar

It is fair to say that the euro has been well and truly hammered over the last few trading days and is on the ropes. 

The 1.40 level on EUR/USD is today in sight which is a 7% fall from the December highs. 

The demise of the euro was triggered with the economic Greek tragedy and has since been hit with a return to risk aversion which is triggering buying of USD and JPY. 

Concerns are increasing on the maintainability of the ever expanding growth in China and fears that China will act further to slow the rampant growth by raising rates. 

This has taken a lot of risk off the table in the Far East and Australasia and we have seen weakening of the commodity currencies to tie in with this- in particular the Aussie dollar. 

GBP/EUR is hovering around the 1.15 level- a further fall in EUR/USD would lead it cleanly through the 1.15 level. The euro will not be helped by slightly weaker than expected Eurozone PMI this morning.

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US dollar weakens on news

A combination of factors has caused a weaker US Dollar this morning. 

Firstly the market is still reacting to the disappointing US non-farm payroll data on Friday; the expectation was for a positive number at +10,000, however the actual came in at -85,000 for the month of December. 

This data after volatile markets led to a weaker US Dollar. This morning the Pound and the euro have gained further against the greenback with sterling heading towards 1.62 and the euro pushing back over 1.45. 

The weekend release of December Chinese trade data which came in above expectations is helping lift risk sentiment in the markets. Chinese exports rose 17.7% in December helping to reinforce confidence in the global recovery and lifting FX risk flows. 

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Thin market trading after Christmas reopening

The markets have today reopened after the Christmas break with little to report. 

The Euro/US Dollar is attempting to push back up over 1.44 and sustain this level, with cable struggling to hold above 1.60. USD/CAD has hit a 2 month low of  1.0373. 

 European data released this morning showed that French Gross domestic product remained at 0.3% (QoQ), as a result the euro did not budge.
 

Throughout the trading day so far the euro has remained pretty strong, helped by a slightly better than expected figure for Italian business confidence. The Pound has gained ever so slightly against the greenback. 

This afternoon we have US consumer confidence which is expected to show a figure of 53, against a previous figure of 49.50   

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Financial markets wind down for Christmas

Financial markets get more and more illiquid and technicals become more and more relevant. 

To that end, Euro/Dollar remains the driver for forex markets and the target is very much the 200 day moving average level of just below 1.4200. 

Given the current penchant for buying Dollars, this looks a better than evens bet today. The turn in the dollar to date comes from a better relative economic performance than other majors, rather than any concern that the global recovery will derailed. 

As such, we should not necessarily be seeing weakness in high yield commodity and emerging currencies. Certainly the renewed strength in the dollar may be discouraging funding carry trades out of the dollar, and renewing the case for funding out of the JPY or even the EUR, but it suggests a broad carry trade unwind is unlikely to last. 

The recent improvement in the US Dollar against other major currencies reflects the relative rise in US bond yields. 

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The US Dollar rally continues

The US Dollar index- which measures the strength of the USD against a basket of currencies hit a 3 month high as the Dollar extended its recent rally. 

However the motivation for the rally shifted- previously the US Dollar gained on the back of recent positive economic data in the form of retail sales and payroll numbers. 

Yesterday it was more a case of good old fashioned risk aversion creating a demand for the safe haven US Dollar. A more upbeat statement from the FED may also have helped as they slowly turn more hawkish, however it was a clear case of risk off that drove the US dollar higher yesterday. 

The problem is that a weaker Dollar will have contributed to better economic data and now the USD is gaining we could see future economic feedback stuttering.

Looking at current levels EUR/USD has now fell back to 1.4380 and hit a low of 1.4304 a level not seen since September. The euro is still struggling on structural weaknesses within certain nations in the 16 nation zone. 

GB Pound/US Dollar also fell into 1.60 territory before creeping back to 1.62- a fall in BRC retail sales was not good news for the UK economy and this number on release caught the market off guard with sterling dropping sharply.

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Fed keeps US interest rates on hold

Last night the Federal reserve kept their interest rates on hold.

Reports indicate we may not see a rate hike until late 2010 or even possibly 2011. The dollar has gained against most currencies on the back of this, and US Dollar/Japanese Yen tipped higher for the third consecutive day.

UK retail sales figures for November MoM came in this morning at -0.3% against an expected 0.5% rise, pushing sterling lower against a basket of currencies. 

Sterling has moved below 1.61 on the back of last nights Fed decision to keep interest rates on hold, boosted by the poor UK retail figures. Key support levels around 1.6083 should see the dollar move towards 1.59 regions.

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US Dollar slips again

The move back into the US Dollar did not last too long as was mainly attributed to the fear factor surrounding Dubai. 

As the markets started to feel more comfortable the US Dollar fell pretty much across the board. EUR/USD again pushed through 1.5050 and then through the 1.51 level, GBP/USD also gained back to the 1.66 level. 

Apparently unnamed sources from the ECB are saying that ECB officials are not concerned about the recent euro strength against the USD- not sure I believe that. This week we have the ECB and the improvement in economic data recently has caused speculation that the ECB will turn more Hawkish in their approach to monetary policy. 

The problem with this is that it would lead to further euro strength if the ECB move before the US Fed and this will certainly be an issue on the agenda for the ECB going into today’s interest rate meeting.

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Currency Converters foreign exchange forex services

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Or for amounts of currency over £4,000, $5,000 or €5,000 please call 0845 389 3000 and ask for a no obligation, free consultation with theexclusive Wise Money business forex service or complete the online enquiry form

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Avoid the queues, unnecessary journeys and order your travel money from the comfort of your own home or office. Then let our speedy next working day delivery service to take over to ensure your money arrives at your door safely.

Place your order before 12:30pm and your money will be delivered by fully insured special delivery by 1.30pm the next working day.

Please note: Orders received before 12:30 pm on Friday will be delivered the following Monday. Orders received after 12:30 pm Friday or placed on Saturday and Sunday, will be delivered the following Tuesday. Special arrangements for Bank Holidays will be advertised on the site at the time.

There is absolutely no service fee or commission on the currency exchange transaction. There is a £4.95 handling fee to cover the cost of delivery and insurance. Orders over £300 when paid for by debit card and bank transfer will receive free delivery please select this option in the shopping cart.

Payment can be made securely over the Internet with any card bearing the Switch, Delta, Visa, MasterCard logo or by cheque, chaps, swift.

We also supply commission free, American Express Travellers Cheques, with the peace of mind offered by free insurance against theft and loss and a 24-hour replacement service.

To order your foreign exchange holiday money cash deliveries in the UK please click here now for amounts less than £4,000, $5,000 or €5,000

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Currency Converter Services at Wise Money

Currency Converter Services at Wise Money

To order your foreign exchange holiday money cash deliveries in the UK for amounts less than £4,000, $5,000 or €5,000
Or for amounts of currency over £4,000, $5,000 or €5,000 please call 0845 389 3000 and ask for a no obligation, free consultation with theexclusive Wise Money business forex service or complete the online enquiry form

Specialists in selling foreign currencies and traveller's cheques. Our travel money service offers commission free currency at highly competitive rates.

Avoid the queues, unnecessary journeys and order your travel money from the comfort of your own home or office. Then let our speedy next working day delivery service to take over to ensure your money arrives at your door safely.

Place your order before 12:30pm and your money will be delivered by fully insured special delivery by 1.30pm the next working day.

Please note: Orders received before 12:30 pm on Friday will be delivered the following Monday. Orders received after 12:30 pm Friday or placed on Saturday and Sunday, will be delivered the following Tuesday. Special arrangements for Bank Holidays will be advertised on the site at the time.

There is absolutely no service fee or commission on the currency exchange transaction. There is a £4.95 handling fee to cover the cost of delivery and insurance. Orders over £300 when paid for by debit card and bank transfer will receive free delivery please select this option in the shopping cart.

Payment can be made securely over the Internet with any card bearing the Switch, Delta, Visa, MasterCard logo or by cheque, chaps, swift.

We also supply commission free, American Express Travellers Cheques, with the peace of mind offered by free insurance against theft and loss and a 24-hour replacement service.

To order your foreign exchange holiday money cash deliveries in the UK please click here now for amounts less than £4,000, $5,000 or €5,000

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

US payroll numbers boost the US Dolllar

On Friday we saw the much anticipated US non farm payroll numbers come in far ahead of expectations.

The number of job losses in July came in at -240,000 against a forecast of -325,000. This was a huge lift for the markets and the US economy following 19 months of dire payroll numbers.

As anticipated the Dow and the FTSE rallied on the news as investor optimism increased; however in the currency markets we did not see the typical play into risk appetite trading and USD weakness.

Initially we did see the USD weaken against the Euro and the Pound, however this weakness was short lived and the USD rallied back considerable across the markets.

So what does this mean? Well it could mean a change in sentiment for the US economy whereby it no longer weakens on good news- the key driver for this is the anticipation that the Federal Reserve may now look to raise interest rates sooner than other major economies and is better placed to do so.

The economic data also helped to comfort the markets to viewing that the Fed will not look to expand (like the UK) its current measures on QE and ultimately that the economy is out of the deep water it was once in. It is still early days but a very good number nonetheless and could mark a turning point. GBP/USD filtered down to 1.66 and EUR/USD down to 1.4155.

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Sterling tops out at 1.65 again against US Dollar

In the last few weeks we have seen a number of attempts to breach 1.65 on GBP/USD and every time the market has failed to hold above this level.

A similar pattern has emerged in USD/JPY which has struggled to hold over 95. In the last four trading days we have seen a tight trading range for GBP/USD which is unusual in the light of the volatility in the last few months.

Today we have a few data snaps in the calendar for the UK which could shake the markets back into life. We have UK mortgage approvals, consumer credit, net lending and M4 money supply out this morning.

Yesterday the USD strengthened against the pound from over 1.65 back to 1.6350 and from 1.4280 down to 1.4108 against the euro. US stock markets fell more than 1% and this helped swing money back into the USD. US economic data supported the trend into risk aversion as consumer confidence fell from 49.3 to 46.6, the lowest level in 3 months.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index fell 17.1% in May- this is the main measure of US house price movements. In addition US corporate earnings were shaky and Bank of America announced that they will be shutting 10% of branches signaling further lay offs.

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IMF warn on UK finances

A cagey day in the markets yesterday as mixed data prevented any dominent trend in the currencies.

Sterling struggled to make a push for 1.65 against the dollar as news that CIT would likely head to bankruptcy maintained a cap on the bulls. In the US we saw data from Initial jobless claims and continuing claims which both came in better than anticipated.

However the fall in initial jobless claims was attributed to seasonal factors and therefore not taken as a bullish number in the markets.

Instead the markets focused on corporate earning figures and yesterday we saw good numbers from JP Morgan, IBM and Google; this helped to stage a late rally in equities with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.1%.

In the FX markets this would normally lend to selling pressure on the USD and the YEN, however we have opened this morning with the USD and Yen stronger.

In Asian trading the markets again turned nervous and the pound was dented by the YEN and the USD in particular. Feedback from the IMF focusing on the health of the UK economy did not help the pound.

The IMF suggested that extra capital would be required by UK banks if the economic situation declines, in addition there was also a warning for Gordon Brown that a ‘credible plan’ was necessary to sure up the public finace position- the word credible denoting that political rhetoric will not wash and clear action was required.

In a damning assessment the IMF stated that “Market conditions suggest the UK has been getting the benefit of the doubt, both in the Government bond market and also the foreign exchange market,” and “This benefit of the doubt is not going to last forever and it’s going to be important that the Government does not test the limit of the market’s confidence”.

Confidence in the markets was also shaken by news of the bombings of 2 hotels in Jakarta with reports of 9 dead- this lifted the USD and the YEN.

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Wise Money view- risk aversion reigns again

For currency traders, the G8 was notable solely for what was not said and for who was not there.

Rhetoric suggested the summit would be the “high noon” for the dollar as a reserve currency, as China pushed for a more diversified anchor for foreign exchange.

But currencies are not even mentioned in the draft communiqué. China’s premier was not present for the discussions, thanks to trouble at home. The showdown on the dollar’s future did not happen.

Rather than dancing to the tune of the world’s leaders, forex markets suffered a new wave of aversion to risk.

That wave started in the commodities market, where prices dipped sharply. The CRB index, a broad index of commodity prices, dropped to its lowest level since early May, pushing below its 200-day moving average – a strong signal that its rebound of the past few months was over.

The CRB is down more than 12 per cent since it topped out last month and is 51 per cent below its high set last year. This implies that deflation – falling prices and stalled economic activity – is a much greater risk than the resurgent inflation that was being talked about only weeks ago.

Gold, an inflation hedge, fell 2.2 per cent and is now down more than 10 per cent since it hit $1,000 per ounce in February.

In currencies, the Japanese yen, which gains when people are anxious, made dramatic and sudden gains against the dollar and the euro. This could increase pressure to intervene to keep the currency cheap.

These developments are alarming. The pendulum in the debate between inflationists and deflationists has swung back to the deflationists – at a point that inflation still looks the lesser evil.

But at least risk aversion will help the dollar avoid further falls and delay the moment when it is replaced as a reserve currency.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

FTSE 100 goes into deep freeze

Markets have been quiet in the past but this morning is almost something different.

In two hours of trading the FTSE has managed to excite absolutely nobody at all after the Dow and S&P went into deep freeze yesterday evening.

With volumes draining away as dealers head off to the beach, there is a good chance that the current moribund conditions will continue for quite some time.

Watching the charts is rather a frustrating pastime, as even small moves look huge due to lack of any major scale with which to compare. The FTSE 100 has now been stuck in a 100 point range for seven sessions and today does not look like changing matters.

One ray of hope is that the Pound has gone for broke this morning and busted straight out of the recent trading ranges.

The 07.00 to 09.00 (UK time) trading period is becoming quite interesting, as Europeans turn on their screens and hammer the market one way or the other.

The high this morning at $1.6742 has been opposed quite strongly since it was hit at 07.21 this morning and we have slipped back to $1.6650ish with punters getting heavily short all the way up.

Those who have dealt with sufficient margin to avoid being stopped out on the way up may be hoping for a nice price correction back into the $1.6200 to $1.6550 trading range, but if we do not get back down there today the chances of a new range being set up are quite strong.

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Oil price falls below $71 as US Dollar surges

A resurgence in the Dollar and concern about the fragility of economic recovery is depressing the oil price which fell below $71 per barrel in early trading this morning.

Buoyancy in the US currency is overshadowing the turmoil in Iran and keeping a brake on speculators in oil which normally surges during periods of instability in the Middle East.

The price of a barrel of US light crude for delivery in July fell by more than a dollar to $70.95 in trading in Singapore, continuing Friday's decline in crude when poor industrial output figures in Europe shook confidence in the likelihood of a speedy economic recovery.

The dollar rose half a percentage point against the euro to $1.3942 in a market still rattled by the weak April industrial production figures. Other commodity prices were also weakened by the strong dollar and doubts about the resurgence in demand for primary goods.

In Shanghai, copper fell its maximum daily limit of 5 per cent, while London Metal Exchange copper fell 2.8 per cent to $5,085 per tonne. Meanwhile, Brent crude fell by more than a dollar per barrel to $69.89 in Singapore trading.

A stronger dollar tends to depress oil and metal prices as investors using non-dollar funds find the commodities more expensive.

Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, voiced concern last week that soaring energy costs might put at risk an economic recovery.

Oil has doubled in price since the beginning of the year and Opec recently said that the recession in the oil markets was over.

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Wise Money lifted by jobs data

Markets climed higher in early US trades as the latest report on jobless claims turned out to be better than expected and retail sales improved.

The Dow Jones was up 62.13 points at 8,801.15 at midday in New York, the S&P 500 was up 8.57 at 947.72, and the Nasdaq was up 11.48 at 1,864.56.

A Labor Department report showed first-time jobless benefits claimants fell to 601,000, better than expectations. The Commerce Department said retail sales increased 0.5 per cent in May after two months of declines.

The FTSE 100 index closed up just 25.12 points higher at 4,461.87 as banking sector gains were offset by falls in commodities.

Oil companies retreated after recent gains, despite oil prices rising for a third day, above $72 a barrel and hitting an eight-month high in New York on the back of a larger-than-expected drop in US crude inventories.

Findings from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), the leading economic think-tank, that the UK economy could emerge from recession soon gave strength to the pound.

Sterling climbed to its highest level in more than six months to reach €1.174 compared with €1.167 previously.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

Asian shares founder after North Korean nuclear test

Asian stocks foundered on Tuesday as the United Nations condemned North Korea's nuclear test and investors awaited more clues about the health of the world economy.

Major markets like Japan and South Korea drifted lower, while the dollar fell against the yen and oil prices slackened.

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula showed no signs of easing after the UN Security Council criticized North Korea's test of a nuclear bomb as a "clear violation" of international bans. But the country's defiance continued with reports saying it would likely step up its weapons testing by firing short-range missiles this week.

While hurting sentiment in the short term, the standoff was more an excuse to take a breather from the recent rally, analyst said.

Caution ahead of upcoming economic reports in the US, as well as Wall Street and British market holidays Monday, also left investors with few reasons to set a course one way or the other.

Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average fell 19 points, or 0.2pc, to 9,327.82, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 19.91 points, or 0.1pc, to 17,141.73 in an erratic session.

In South Korea, the Kospi was off 2.4pc at 1,367.02. The benchmark dived over 6pc on Monday on news of North Korea's nuclear test before recovering nearly all its losses.

Elsewhere, Shanghai's index lost 0.1pc, Australia's benchmark was up 1.1pc and Taiwan's market dropped 0.8pc.

Both US and British financial markets were closed Monday for holidays. European markets finished little changed on Monday.

With investors eyeing key US economic reports this week, including home sales, big-ticket manufactured goods and consumer confidence, Wall Street futures pointed to a slightly lower open on Tuesday.

Oil prices fell Asia trade ahead of OPEC's meeting this week, with benchmark crude for July delivery trading at $60.93 a barrel, down 74 cents from overnight trade.

The dollar slipped to 94.66 yen from 94.84 yen, while the euro was lower at $1.3976 compared to $1.4003.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

What a difference an "A" makes

Yesterday we saw incredible volatility in the markets as firstly Standard & Poor’s said it was revising its outlook for Britain’s AAA credit rating from "stable" to negative.

This had a whirlwind effect on the markets with the FTSE falling nearly 3% and sterling tumbling across the markets. Official data showed that the treasury borrowed £8.5 billion last month and the S&P warned that the debt rating would be downgraded if the next governments’ fiscal plans do not show a secure downward trajectory in the medium term.

A downgrade would be a huge blow to the status of Britain and would lead to the Treasury being required to pay higher interest on future borrowings. Sterling weathered the initial dip of 2% against the US Dollar and 1.5% against the Euro and retraced back to earlier highs of 1.58 against the USD in later trading and gained some of its losses back on the Euro.

Moody’s later informed the market that they had no plans to change their current rating of AAA and stable helping the pound. The response from the UK government and head of the DMO affirmed "There are significant uncertainties in the global economy at the present time and S&P point out that the outlook could be revised back to stable 'if fiscal outturns are more benign than currently (they) currently anticipate'," – let us hope Mr. Darlings growth forecasts are correct!

Sterling’s gain back against the US dollar was also helped by worries that the US will eventually face the same fate of a credit downgrade with its spiraling budget deficit and weakening economy.

Bill Gross the co- CEO of PIMCO a large bond firm told Reuters that investors fear the US is "going the way of the UK-losing AAA rating, which affects all financial assets and the dollar", the growing fears sent the dollar tumbling as risk aversion encouraged investors to seek new harbours- the YEN and the EURO the initial favourites.

EUR/USD is now approaching the 1.40 level and is still looking bullish. The decline in the dollar comes amid rallying commodities, equities and corporate bonds, initially the increased confidence in the markets encouraged the "safe haven" dollar to be sold, however now the dollar seems to be losing its shine as a safe haven.

The dollar index which tracks the US currency against a basket of currencies has fallen to its lowest level since December 29 and has technically broken out of its upward range. Expect to see more dollar weakness with neither risk appetite or risk aversion being dollar positive.

In other news data today confirmed that GDP in the UK dropped 1.9% in the first quarter of this year- this was exactly in line with forecasts and has not moved the markets. Japan has upgraded its economic outlook and is forecasting that exports are forecasted to pick up- this follows a massive fall in exports in Q1 and a 4% fall in output- this should be Yen positive as it underlines the safe haven status of the Yen and will encourage more Yen leveraged carry trades- particularly into AUD.

Finally the Indian Rupee advanced on sentiment that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will look to sell state assets and attract foreign investment- the INR made its biggest weekly gain against the USD since March 1996.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

Wise Money sees feelgood factor returns

Overnight the UK government has hinted it may look to sell a portion of the debt it has taken on in the nationalised UK banking sector this has seen sterling surge 2 cents against the US$ to levels not seen since December 2008.

Over in the US the feel good factor continues as the Treasury Secretary Geithner adds to the growing belief that we have turned the corner.

This, added to bullish global economic data and further comments from the US gave the Stock Markets a real boost, pushed the oil price up above $60 per barrel again and caused the Dollar to ease against the majors.

Positive data included a rise in Japanese consumer confidence and better than expected export figures from the EU.

We then got ‘reasonable' numbers from the US including strong trading performance from Lowes, a major company whose business is directly related to the house building industry.

Financial stocks added to the positive sentiment following news that Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan had applied to the Treasury for permission to repay their TARP borrowings.

The Reserve Bank of Australia gave a moderate assessment of their domestic situation and questioned the need for a further cut in their interest rates at the May meeting. AUD strengthened slightly following an earlier dip on the Chinese steel directive.

And in a further sign of a global shift away from the US Dollar as a trading medium, Brazil and China have agreed to work towards using their currencies in trading transactions rather than the greenback.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

Fed shock the markets with a bumper $1.15 trillion stimulus plan

The Pound and the euro rallied significantly last night against the USD as the Federal Reserve shocked the market with a $1.15 trillion boost for the US economy.

This has caused the US dollar to be sold off and we have broken through 1.40 again as the equity markets rally. $300 billion will be made available for longer term treasury securities and $850 billion for the ailing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The FX markets witnessed big swings with EUR/USD rallying to 1.35 and USD/YEN moving back down to 95.

The market is now looking for safe haven currencies outside the US dollar as currency risk is dissipated. Sterling gained against the USD but remained subdued in other areas and weakened against the EUR with a break of 1.05 now in reach.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

Equities tumble as AIG losses shock the markets

AIG yesterday announced the biggest corporate quarterly loss in history as 4th quarter 2008 figures showed a $61.7bn loss.

The troubled insurance company is integral to insuring households and financial risk globally and would pose a systemic risk to the global economy if allowed to fall. AIG has already received support of $150bn and will now require further funding to sustain it.

The markets reacted swiftly to the news with US stocks falling to their lowest level in 12 years and the FTSE marking a slump of 5%. The bleak outlook yesterday was not helped by HSBC showing pre tax profits for 2008 down by 62% on the previous year and confirmation that it is seeking to raise 12.5bn from shareholders to help the firm through the uncertain economic environment.

The news released yesterday simply compounded the fact that the economic downturn is deepening and looking likely to continue.

The knock on effect in the markets was a huge sell off in equities and a rush to the safe haven US dollar. Sterling was sold heavily against the majors- rapidly falling towards 1.40 against the dollar and retracing to 1.11 against the euro.

Thursday will confirm the decision on interest rates for the Bank Of England and the European Central Bank; it is expected that both central banks will cut rates by up to 50 basis points.

Interestingly the Bank of Australia kept rates on hold at 3.25% last night, citing confidence in recent policy easing and stimulus packages as being sufficient to maintain confidence in the economy. Could we see a similar stance from the BOE or ECB on Thursday?

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

US economic fears hit asia markets

Asian stocks fell heavily on Tuesday following last night's sharp decline in American shares.

Investors responded to fears that the world's largest economy is sinking further into recession and speculation that the US Government may be forced to buy stakes in ailing banks, despite assurances from Washington that lenders would not be nationalised.

Japan's Nikkei Index fell by 1.5 per cent to a four-month low, narrowly avoiding a slide to below 7,000 for the first time in 26 years, closing at 7,268.56. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng lost 461.46 points, or 3.5 per cent, to end the day at 12,713.64. Last night, the Dow Jones industrial average fell to an 11-year low, losing 250.89 points to 7,114.78.

Japanese shares remained in the red for the day despite hints from Kaoru Yosano, the newly appointed Finance Minister, that the Government may be working on more measures to support the domestic share market.

"The side-effects of falling stock prices are worse than expected,” said Mr Yosano. “We are witnessing many negative wealth effects with impaired assets held by banks and insurance firms.”

Japan's Government is understood to be mulling over plans to buy falling stocks with money from the public purse in an effort to keep prices buoyant.
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Japan’s biggest securities house, Nomura, announced that it planned to raise about $3.1 billion via equity issuance. The capital-boosting scheme – itself seen as a sign of deepening trouble in Japan’s financial sector – is expected to cause massive dilution for existing shareholders, a risk that sent Nomura’s shares down 8.4 per cent.

Concern is growing that the Japanese banks, despite their stable capital position relative to peers in the US, will rein-in their spending even more fiercely, triggering bankruptcies throughout the small and medium-sized industrial heartlands of Japan.

“The view out of the porthole has become rather watery,” said one Mitsubishi Tokyo UFJ broker describing the four-session run of selling in Japan.

The broader investment scene in Japan was no more cheerful. There have been ten bankruptcies among Tokyo-listed companies so far this year and the cost of insuring Japanese corporate debt against default has now near a record high.

On currency markets, the yen fell to a one-month low amid warnings by analysts that the recent strength of the Japanese currency was wildly out of kilter with the country’s economic strength and that the speculative use of the yen as a “safe haven” would now start to decline.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

US Dollar under pressure

Last week although the currency markets were choppy, we did not see a significant break out of the current ranges for the main protagonists- GBP/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/EUR.

What we did see was more negativity in the equity markets as the Dow fell to the 2002 lows below 7300 amid fears that the US government will raise their stake in Citigroup and Bank of America- a step closer to nationalization which has raised concern for investors.

On the back of this the USD is showing the strain and we have seen a move higher on GBP/USD and EUR/USD reversing the dollar strength we saw last week.

Looking to the week ahead the main data to look out for will focus on releases from Europe and the US. Tomorrow we have the German IFO survey and Wednesday we see GDP data from Germany- the IFO survey will give an early indicator of current business expectations and sentiment and Wednesdays GDP will give a statistical measure of German economic activity and health.

The Yen over the last few months has been a dominant force in the fx markets. With risk aversion coming to the fore the yen has strengthened dramatically with a 43% gain on the pound and 14% on the dollar.

However over the last week there has been a shift in sentiment on the Yen with a growing feeling that going forward the Yen may not be the best option as a safe haven currency- with GDP contracting sharply and the resignation of their finance minister Shoichi Nakagawa.

It will be very interesting to see how this scenario plays out as this will re-distribute the flow of funds to other currencies. Other safe haven favourites being the USD and the Swiss Franc, the effects of any redistribution could have a major impact on the currency markets…

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

Euro halts losing streak against the US Dollar

Yesterday the euro managed to halt its losing streak against the US dollar as the German finance minister stated that Germany would act if other countries in the euro zone required assistance, this helped to stall the euro decline and allay some of the fears of a potential banking crisis in Eastern Europe.

Data just released from Germany shows that the service sector has declined at a rapid pace and manufacturing activity also dipped slightly, this data emphasizes that there is little prospect to a near term end to the contraction.

EUR/USD yesterday made a recovery back to 1.2760 before retreating back to 1.26…the important factor is that it has not dropped below the 1.25 support level.

No real break in trend yesterday for the pound as it continued in a choppy range against the USD and the EUR. We have just seen retail sales data from the UK which is a surprisingly good number- showing a rise of 0.7% against the consensus of a fall of 0.1%.

The unexpected rise has been attributed to an increase in internet purchases and aggressive price cuts by retailers- in the immediate aftermath sterling moved higher against the USD and EUR.

In the US Barack Obama will host a summit next week to tackle the spiraling US deficit which is looking at levels of over a trillion dollars every year for the next decade. Obama is looking to revise a strategy to reduce the deficit over the next 10 years- if a plan is not put into place soon then this ballooning deficit should start to weigh on the USD especially if the equity markets start to recover.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

The Euro finally breaks down through the 1.2700 support

This support level has held since early December against the US dollar.

The target going forward is now for a lower rate with the medium term outlook still towards 1.1500. This latest Euro weakness stemmed from renewed apprehension towards the economic outlook for Eastern Europe and a warning released by Moody's overnight that Western European Banks' rating would need to be downgraded as a result.

The largest exposures to Eastern Europe are carried by Banks from Austria and Sweden but significant loans are also carried by German, French, Belgian and Italian institutions, which combined, account for 84% of western European lending to the region.

This provoked a new wave of risk aversion trading this morning in Asia with weakness seen not only in the Euro but also the AUD, NZD and other regional currencies.

The Yen, which has been a safe haven since the demise of the carry trade mentality, didn't benefit either as their own domestic woes appear finally to be catching Japan up (ie the collapse in Japanese economic activity - down nearly 13% y/y, the move to a deficit on trade and rising political risk with the PM's approval rating falling below 10% and the untimely departure of the Finance Minister following his ‘Rome adventure').

The currency didn't fall however and whether it was on the back of suspected US$ bond redemptions or whether Market perception that we are going to have ultra-low global interest rates for some time to come (hence no renewal of carry trade) or a combination of both doesn't matter. The fact is that any weakening of the Yen might prove to be some time away.

In Europe, today's German ZEW survey will confirm the severity of the recession in the Eurozone. Think of a number and put a minus sign in front of it - you won't be far wrong.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.