US Greenback ends the year on a high

As we enter the last full trading day of the year, the Greenback has strengthened and trades below 1.59. 

Yesterday's US consumer confidence showed a figure of 52.90 against an expected 53.0, but still up on November's figure of 50.6. On the back of this data the dollar moved over 1.60 but shifted back towards 1.59 levels soon after as thin market trading continued.
 

German consumer price index figures released yesterday afternoon added support to the euro as we saw an increase to 0.8% from an expected 0.7%, up on last years 0.3% and euro/GB Pound fell below 1.11 where it is trading this morning.   

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WiseMoney.com is a free, independent online finances resource whose intention is to simplify the complicated world of finance and to save you time, money and worry in the process by comparing the best finance companies for you from around the world. 

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Travel insurance quotes overview at Wise Money

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Commercial Finance from Wise Money- an easy solution to your funding requirements.

Commercial Finance from Wise Money- an easy solution to your funding 

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Residential property – Buy to let ; professional	KEY AREAS OF INTEREST:
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FTSE hits year high as confidence rises

The FTSE 100 index of leading shares rose to its highest level this year today, climbing by 76.85 points to 4,685.21, as investors appetite for risk returned to the market, driven by the banking and mining sector.

The blue chip index has been testing early January highs for much of the past few weeks amid returning confidence among investors, which had seen the FTSE equal a record eleven consecutive sessions of gains.

Barclays rose 20.3p to 322.6p after reporting an 8 per cent rise in profits for the first half of the year, HSBC added 35.9p to 641.7p also revealing a profit despite a 57 per cent in earnings.

Miners also made strong gains on the back of two surveys from China showing an acceleration in factory growth during July thanks to a revived domestic economy and slight pick-up in demand for exports. Xstrata gained 43.3p to 851.5p, Rio Tinto rose 99.5p to £25.88 and Anglo American added 72p to £20.02.

However, Legal & General (L&G) missed out on the gains, falling 0.95p to 63.5p, ahead of its interim results tomorrow amid speculation it may cut its dividend again and be forced into a share issue to rebuild its capital reserves.

The insurer cut its final dividend to 2.05p a share from 4.1p in the previous year, to "promote balance sheet resilience." L&G also told shareholders, following its final results in March, that they should expect "continued caution" in capital and cashflow management while markets remain volatile.

Investors may call for L&G to raise funding to remove the uncertainty over its capital and exposure to corporate bond defaults.

The biggest gainer in the blue chips was Petrofac, the oil services group, which builds oil rigs. The group rose 72.5p to 823p after UBS upgraded to buy from neutral, saying that its $6 billion in contract wins so far this year showed its growth potential was undimmed by the lower oil price.

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World Bank sees deeper and longer slump

World Bank urges continued government stimulus as private sector investment famine cripples recovery in developing countries.

The global recession will be deeper and longer than expected said the World Bank today which is forecasting a harsher downturn this year as the famine in private sector investment cripples recovery among developing countries.

The world economy will shrink more aggressively this year, predicts the bank, contracting by 2.9 per cent, a much steeper decline than it predicted in March when the institution forecast a 1.7 per cent contraction.

The recovery in 2010 will be weaker, an expansion of 2 per cent compared with its previous prediction of 2.3 per cent.

The bank urged governments to continue stimulus spending as it warned that the world was entering an era of slower growth. Developing countries are being hit hard by a collapse in corporate finance as banks and multinational companies rein in their investment plans.

The World Bank's grim forecast sent the price of shares and commodities tumbling around the world.

Copper fell by more than 3 per cent and crude oil slipped further below $70 per barrel, dipping by a dollar to just over $68 per barrel for US Light Crude.

Energy prices have been on the slide over concerns that the economic recovery may be slower and more muted than expected.

The World Bank said that the US economy would shrink by 3 per cent this year while developing countries will grow by only 1.2 per cent, a very sharp slowdown from growth of 8 per cent in 2007 and 5.9 per cent in 2008.

Without the dynamo of the Chinese and Indian economies, the developing world shrink by 1.6 per cent, pushing more of the world's population into severe poverty.

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Are inflationary pressures in the UK beginning to diminish?

With the US markets closed for Presidents’ Day and many Asian markets closed for the Lunar New Year, trading has been extremely quiet in the foreign exchange market.

News from Japan, the UK and the Eurozone have been driving the dollar’s fluctuations and this is expected to continue for the remainder of the week since consumer prices is the only piece of notable US economic data on the calendar. The global trend of inflation has been lower and because of that, consumer price growth in the US may slow in the month of January.

Yesterday in the UK a written testimony by the Bank of England to the Treasury Select Committee reported that the trade weighted pound is overvalued and is expected to move lower to close the current account deficit. The BoE also noted that inflationary pressures has ebbed and have become unusually stable.

This follows last week’s report from the National Statistics Office that revealed a 0.8% drop in prices in the month of January. However the weakness in GBP did not last long as the market tries to figure whether the BoE will still raise interest rates in March.

Given the recent weakness in UK economic data, the odds for a rate hike are diminishing. All eyes will be on tomorrows BoE's minutes to see if the decision to leave rates unchanged was unanimous.

The Euro has started the new trading week on a firmer footing as technical traders continue to drive the currency pair higher after last week’s upside breakout.

The Eurozone economy has been exhibiting impressive strength for the past month and the currency’s latest movements reflect that. In the week ahead, the Eurozone economic calendar is far busier than the US calendar.

The majority of the market is expecting backward looking data such as French and German GDP to confirm the region’s improving growth and validate the central bank’s plans to raise interest rates.

The most important release of the week is the German IFO business sentiment report. Most of the growth that we have seen thus far has been driven by a rush of year end consumer spending ahead of the value added tax increase in Germany last month.

However now that the tax increase is in place, we might begin to see a moderate slowdown in growth that could take a toll on business sentiment.

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