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The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

German retail sales fall as G22 meets

German retail sales for February have fallen 0.2% against the consensus of a rise of 0.2% this morning reinforcing the weak sentiment in Germany.

Yesterday we saw unemployment levels rise to 8.6% as the powerhouse of Europe comes under real pressure- this will heighten the cause for more action from the ECB tomorrow.

Today, news from G20 participants will dominate although there is a raft of data from the US later the most interesting of which will be the ISM survey. The question that needs to be answered is, does a scenario of very easy monetary conditions translate quickly into an improvement in underlying confidence. I think that given what has gone before, this will not readily happen and that this type of statistic will disappoint for some time to come.

Overnight, the Japanese Tankan was released. The results were mixed but one has say, erred on the weaker side. Business sentiment for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies were marginally worse with large and small enterprises both anticipating conditions to deteriorate further during the coming 12-months. the Nikkei remained buoyed however by yesterday's announcement of additional stimulus measures to be pushed through.

Today we are seeing movement on sterling- moving higher against the euro and the dollar and up against the Canadian dollar to 1.82. With added pressure on the ECB we could now see a break back to 1.10.

The OECD, in its global progress report yesterday seemed to support the current mood for although they talk of the UK economy contracting by an eye-watering 3.7%, comparisons with other ‘top' nations make us look performers - US -4%, Italy -4.3%, Germany -5.3% and Japan down a staggering 6.6%.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

GB economy slows sharper than expected

UK economy slows sharper than expected as construction slumps

Britain's economy slowed even more sharply than expected in the last three months of 2008 as construction output plunged, official data showed on Friday.

GDP contracted by 1.6pc in the fourth quarter of 2008, revised down from a contraction of 1.5pc, the Office for National Statistics reported. The quarterly fall of 1.6pc was the sharpest decline since 1980.

Construction output tumbled 4.9pc over the quarter, revised down from a fall of 1.1pc. The ONS said this was due to survey data replacing a forecast.

The decline is the biggest quarterly fall in construction output since the fourth quarter on 1980.

Output of the production industries fell 4.5pc compared with a fall of 1.8pc in the previous quarter, driven by the marked decline in manufacturing output.

Separate figures showed Britain's current account deficit narrowed to £7.641bn in the fourth quarter of 2008 from an upwardly revised deficit of £8.162bn in the third quarter.

Sterling fell against the euro on Friday as it continued to suffer the fallout from Thursday's weak retail sales figures. High street sales plunged by 1.9pc during February, taking annual growth down to just 0.4 percent, its weakest since 1995

Following that theme, John Lewis - the department store group whose sales are often seen as a barometer of British retail spending - reported on Friday sales dropped by 12.6pc in the week to March 21.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

BoE minutes as expected...retail sales to follow.

Yesterday, the BoE minutes confirmed what the market had been expecting with a 7-1-1 split, the majority sticking with the status quo and keeping rates on hold.

The hawk of the MPC, Tim Besley, voted for a hike arguing a pre-emptive rate rise would assist in halting inflationary pressures. David Blanchflower as usual cited downside risks to growth weighed far heavier than the inflation problem.

The rhetoric in the minutes echoed what was said in the inflation report, maintaining that there was greater downside risks to growth, that inflation would remain above the 2 percent target for the majority of the forecast horizon but that it will fall below this target at the 2-year mark.

Staying in the UK, CBI industrial trends came in slightly below market expectations at -13 yesterday and today we look to UK retail sales to give us direction.

Market expectations are for retail sales to decline again for the month of July following other recent weak data releases. The number surprised to the upside in May so it will be interesting to see how our capacity to spend faired last month.

Today in the Euro-zone, PMI surveys will give an indication of how manufacturing and services are fairing. The Market expects numbers to marginally decrease on the month in contradiction to the upbeat numbers released in the ZEW sentiment index on Tuesday.

Recent USD strength seems to have waned following slight rises in gold and oil prices taking other commodities with them. There are concerns too for the large US mortgage institutions and their ability to raise cash which is contributing to the dollars slowing pace.

US labour market weakness is expected to continue today with the release of initial jobless claims reporting around the 43k number with continuing claims expected to show an increase to nearly 3.5m. Later in the afternoon, we'll see the Philadelphia Fed which has been soft all year but might pick up a little following recent ISM readings around the 50 level.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

The Dollar brings some confidence back into the market

After the release of the Confederation of British industry retail data yesterday sterling immediately weakened against the USD.

The market had already anticipated the data to be lower for the month of July at -15% following on from -9% in the previous month. However the result of -36% had an immediate impact on sterling and caused it to fall.

It is clear that every part of the high street is feeling the crunch at present. Sterling also had another blow as the mortgage approvals data fell to 36,000 with the new home loans reaching a record low in June.

This bleak data concerning the UK housing market is not expected to improve in months to come. Sir James Crosby the former Chief Exec of HBOS suggested in the press this morning that the new liquidity scheme introduced in April allowing banks to exchange mortgages for treasury bills to raise funds should be broadened to include mortgages underwritten since 2007.

On a brighter note the Conference Board announced that US Consumer Confidence increased slightly in July. Analysts believe the increase relates to oil prices heading lower boasting the dollar and diverting from the record highs we have been experiencing of late.

The US Consumer Confidence had hit 16 year lows last month so this improvement is a comfort. However it must be mentioned that this figure of 51.9 is a far cry from a figure of 111.90 in July 2007. It is apparent that consumers still very much see the current economic conditions as unstable and the US S&P home price index for May certainly would reinforce any doubts.

This index yesterday reported that US home process fell at a record pace in May. Out of the 20 metropolitan areas included in this survey all showed annual declines for a further month.

However the markets reaction to a further fall in the price of oil, currently at $121 per barrel, along with sale of debt from Merrill Lynch saw the dollar rally for most of the day. US stocks were up on the day and brought some much needed optimism to the market.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

Wise Money sees up and downs like a yo-yo

Sterling's rise following the split MPC vote on Wednesday was short lived as UK retail sales data for June released yesterday plummeted.

Sales fell in all but one sector, with clothes, shoes and household goods sales severely hit. The sharper-than-expected decline drove the pound lower as investors bet the Bank of England may have to cut interest rates to bolster the economy.

The Office for National Statistics said retail sales volumes fell 3.9% in June, the sharpest fall since records began in 1986, after an upwardly revised 3.6% increase in May.

Analysts were expecting a fall of just 2.5% and an annual gain of 4.4% but annual growth was just 2.2% compared to 7.9% last time. While the Bank of England has given little sign that lower borrowing costs are on the way, because inflation is running at its strongest rate in more than a decade, most economists think rates will need to fall eventually.

It was also bad news for the Euro zone with German business sentiment declining sharply. The Ifo business climate index fell to 97.5 from 101.2 in June, its lowest level since September 2005.

Also of concern to policy makers at the ECB will be the fact that both Manufacturing and Service sector PMI indexes also fell in June. Services PMI declined to 48.3 from 49.1 in May its lowest reading for 5 years while Manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.5 from 49.2 - readings under 50 indicate contraction.

It wasn't any better stateside either. The US weekly jobless claims jumped by 34,000 to 406,000 from 372,000 the previous week and new home sales were down 2.6% in June to record their lowest level for 10 years.

With the crucial US Non Farm payroll numbers due out next Friday the jobless claims does not bode well. Wall Street closed 283 points lower on the back of the weak economic data and the record losses announced by Ford. The car giant's second quarter loss amounted to US$9 billion as sales of trucks and larger vehicles plummeted.

US crude oil prices bounced a little from recent lows to close at $126.15 yesterday with Brent crude also closing up at $126.96.

The Aussie Dollar has come under further pressure following an announcement by the National Australia Bank that they have written off A$798m in credit market related losses thereby increasing speculation that the Reserve Bank will need to cut interest rates sometime soon.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

Negative outlook continues for sterling

We have seen very little move in rates overnight with the Far East happy to leave things approximately as they found them on opening.

All the action yesterday centred around the data from the UK and Germany, both of which proved to be much weaker than had been expected.

German Industrial Production was down 2.4 per cent in May against a forecasted rise of 0.2%. This caused an increase in market concern as to the future growth prospects of the Eurozone economy and called into doubt the wisdom of last week's ECB rate increase.

There was a raft of weak data from the UK with GDP, Manufacturing Output and a survey from the British Chamber of Commerce all adding to the doom and gloom for Sterling.

There is widespread pressure on the MPC to sanction a cut in rates but expectations are that there will still be a hold on UK rates this month. Looking at the futures market the yield curve is still projecting a 15bp rise in rates by the end of the year, but this has reduced considerably over the last week.

This gave the market the excuse to sell Sterling all round. The move however was short lived and having had a busy couple of hours, the market then stagnated.

US mortgage funders Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae's shares plummeted to the lowest level in 16 years since the early 90's tumbling nearly 18% and more than 16% respectively, as Lehmen's produced a report anticipating that the entities would need to find an extra $75bln in new capital to satisfy new accounting rules.

This caused the Dow to dip yesterday but with no real effect on exchange or interest rates.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

Decline in UK Retail activity not as bad as forecast

Yesterday's retail sales from the UK showed a fall again from last month's figures as faster inflation, lack of credit and the slump in the housing sector all taking their toll.

Sales were down 0.2% from March. Economists had forecast a 0.5% drop. Year on year the sales were still up 4.2% driven mainly by the continuing popularity of software; as the gamers amongst us will know titles such as Grand Theft Auto pushed these figures higher with huge sales volumes.

It's not all fun and games though following this continuing negative trend in spending. Bank of England Governor Mervin King hinted that the UK is edging ever closer to recession as confidence continues to fall.

Over the water the US jobless claims fell 9,000 to 365,000, from a revised 374,000 the prior week. Forecasts were for significantly more than this which demonstrates that employers are keeping up their promises to their key workers regardless of the slowing economy.

Eurozone industrial orders fell at twice the rate expected from forecasts in March. The main reasons were high oil prices, Euro gains and the ever negative US economy. The orders fell 1.0% from February (the first decline in three months), after increasing a revised 0.2 percent the previous month.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

UK retail sales expected to increase for fourth consecutive month as house prices slow

Retail sales in the UK are expected to have risen for a fourth consecutive month as figures are released this morning. The survey is expected to show that shoppers took advantage of after-Christmas discounts in January.

Sales in stores and supermarkets are forecast to have climbed 0.2 percent from December. Shoppers have helped power the fastest economic growth for two years in the fourth quarter, prompting the Bank of England to raise its benchmark interest rates to a five-year high.

The Pound may decline following an industrial survey showed house prices gained at the slowest rate in seven months in January. The pound fought back from nearly its lowest in a month yesterday after the Bank of England policy makers hinted that they may need to increase interest rates to bring inflation back to the 2 percent target.

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke told the banking committee yesterday that his preferred gauge of inflation will fall to or below 2 percent next year, mainly because of lower prices of oil, commodities and rent.

Industrial production is released in the US this afternoon with expectations that it was steady in January as companies held off on new orders while continuing to pare inventories.

Gold steadied this morning after reaching a near seven month high yesterday as a drop in the dollar boosted appeal for precious metal as an alternative investment. Gold generally moves in an opposite direction to the dollar, which fell to its lowest in almost six weeks against the euro yesterday.

Crude oil was little changed after falling on forecasts for warmer weather in the eastern U.S. and a smaller than expected decline in the country’s distillate supplies last week.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.