US Dollar shines after positive minutes

Yesterday the markets digested the minutes of the February interest rate meetings for both the UK and the US. 

Firstly looking at the UK the vote was a unanimous 9-0 to keep interest rates on hold and also to hold QE at £200 billion. The feedback from the MPC was ambiguous in the sense that the decision was unanimous and yet the comments were that it was a "finely balanced" decision to keep QE on hold. 

The unanimous decision gave Sterling a boost which was then tempered by weaker than expected employment numbers. Going forward this does not change the sentiment for sterling which will struggle to appreciate until the outlook for the UK warrants a more hawkish approach from the MPC.

Over to the US and the FOMC upgraded their forecasts for the US economy reflecting a more bullish tone from the Fed. 

They also discussed trying to shrink their reserves over time although no time frame was announced to do this. The positive tone from the Fed with improved economic sentiment in the US coupled with loitering fear in the markets helped to push the USD higher.

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More eu red tape throttles insurers

There is nothing like a bit of scaremongering to put the skids under nervous investors and yesterday it was the turn of the eu to stir things up.

The catalyst for another bad day in the London share market was a letter from the Association of British Insurers, the industry body, to Alistair Darling in which it gave notice that its members may need to ask investors for £50 billion to cover new European capital requirements.

The prospect of a large recapitalisation is pinned on concerns about the proposed Solvency II rules, which come into force in 2012 and essentially would require insurers to hold more capital. 

Companies such as Legal & General, which have big pension annuities books, could be hit hard as the rules would force them to hold less risky, low-yielding assets that may not match their obligation to pay out to annuity holders over time.

Such fears, combined with news that Odey Asset Management, the hedge fund, had increased its short position in the sector, made L&G the biggest blue-chip faller, closing 6½p, or 8 per cent, down at 68p. Aviva fell 15p to 390¼p and Prudential slipped 11p to 514½p.

The FTSE 100 dropped 2.15 points to 4,817.55, further fuelling concerns of a stock market correction after its recent good run.

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Stock markets euphoria comes to abrupt halt

The rally in shares came to an abrupt end today as the leading FTSE 100 share index dropped back by 31 points in early trading.

Falls across the mining sector pulled the index back from yesterday's ten month high to 4,865.10, a 0.64 per cent drop. The rally had been fuelled by growing signs the global economic recovery is quickening.

The drop in UK shares followed a muted end of session in New York, where the Dow Jones industrial average ended up just 3.32 points at 9,509.28 after a buying spree.

Overnight in Asia shares also slipped in a part reversal of the previous day's solid gains, as many investors stuck to the sidelines, awaiting more clues on whether the economic recovery would prove long-term.

Japan's Nikkei average shed 0.8 per cent after jumping 3.4 per cent the previous day, its biggest one-day gain in three and a half months.

In Europe Frankfurt's DAX slid 0.67 per cent to 5,482.99 and Paris's CAC 40 edged down 0.91 per cent to 3,618.77 points.

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FTSE 100's first weekly fall in over a month prompts rally end fears

London shares have slid to their first weekly loss in more than a month, amid growing signs that the recent rally in shares may be drawing to a close.

The benchmark FTSE 100 index dropped 41.49 points – or 0.9pc – to 4,713.97, meaning it shed 0.4pc during the week. The index had increased steadily over the previous four weeks, sparking hopes that the worst of the bear market had now been consigned to history.

But in what experts described as a key signal to sell, it emerged that the dividend yield on the FTSE All-Share index has dropped beneath the yield on the benchmark 10-year gilt.

This technical threshold is regarded as an indicator of more subdued times on the stock markets. When the two levels last crossed in the other direction late last year, it was seen as a signal that the bear market could be drawing to an end.

The FTSE has had one of its most sustained spells of strength in history over the past few months, amid hopes the unprecedented support measures put in place by the Treasury and Bank of England could end the recession sooner than originally anticipated.

However, this week has brought with it more equivocal news about the economy, with the Bank warning in its Inflation Report that the recovery is likely to be slower and more protracted than many had anticipated.

Indeed, the yield on two-year gilts has hit its lowest level since 1992, amid fears that the UK recession may have further to run.

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US stocks slide on jobs report

US stocks finish a shortened week on a disappointing note on Thursday morning as data showed many more people lost their jobs during June than expected.

A total of 467,000 non-farm employees lost their jobs during last month, 100,000 more than had been expected. However investors took some confidence from the fact that the unemployment rate rose only a notch to 9.5 per cent, its highest since 1983.

Meanwhile 614,000 people claimed jobless benefits for the first time last week, a number that is seen as a more current indicator of the state of unemployment than the figures for June. This was slightly lower than expectations, as was the number continuing to claim such benefits.

Banks, which had been trading lower throughout the morning as investors moved to anticipate the figures, extended their declines. Citigroup fell 1 per cent to $2.94 and Wells Fargo gave up 1.2 per cent to $23.85.

Despite the economic data, trading is thin, with many investors having taken an early break before the long Independence Day weekend.

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Markets tumble on World Bank's global economy fears

Global stock markets tumbled yesterday on renewed concerns about the health of the world economy.

Global stock markets tumbled on Monday on renewed concerns about the health of the world economy.

The FTSE 100 index lost 111 points, or 2.6pc, to 4,234 – its lowest level since April.

Only four companies in the blue-chip index managed to end the day in positive territory as a drop in commodity prices knocked mining and oil companies.

The oil price fell $1.92 to $67.27 a barrel, and the price of copper fell more than 5pc to a three-week low on the London Metal Exchange.

In America the Dow Jones was down 2pc to 8,370 in mid afternoon trading.

Investors were shaken by a report from the World Bank which warned that the global economy would fall 2.9pc this year before rebounding in 2010.

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Global stock markets are bullish

With strong performances from Europe, Wall Street and Japan - all for differing reasons.

The bounce in Financial stocks in London (led by Barclays - when was the last time we saw a Bank share leap nearly 75% in value on a single day?) saw Europe take the lead and give Wall Street a boost on opening.

US stocks' recent roller-coaster trading ended at a high with strong support when Pfizer's announced its final plans for their $68 billion takeover of Wyeth.

The rally was underpinned by strong economic data with an unexpected increase in existing US home sales. These factors were just enough to offset further grim corporate news, including a very glum report from Caterpillar (which included an announced 20,000 job losses).

The Nikkei continued the trend this morning though with the index showing a near 5% advance, aided by news the Japanese government is to offer funds to firms whose cash raising ability has been hit by market dislocations.

After hours we get the Canadian budget presentation at the reconvening of Parliament following a 7-week hiatus. This might not sound too interesting but with political power hanging in the balance, a rejection of the budget will bring down the ruling Government and likely lead to a minority government being formed.

Add this to the continuing decline in interest rates and the already announced huge rise in borrowing and we get the scenario for a sharply weaker Loonie in the weeks ahead.

Yesterday saw the first (and hopefully last) Government casualty of the recent Global Financial Crisis with the collapse of the Icelandic administration. The problem appears to be that there are no obvious candidates to take up the 'hot potato'. Not a good omen for the country or currency.

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Well the Good News is that there is no news.

Because of the Martin Luther King Day holiday yesterday, there was no US data out and Wall street was not open. Other than that we are struggling for positives.

The UK Government's bail-out plan for Banks - Part II, despite initially being greeted with optimism, soon adopted the role of the mill-stone, dragging equities and Sterling lower plus pushing Gilt yields up. This despite the feeling that the MPC will cut rates at their February meeting and/or the March one as well.

Expect yields on Gilts to drop through the 3% barrier soon and Sterling to slip further as the market realises that the UK economy is still slipping fast and the minutes to be released tomorrow from the MPC promise further rate cuts to come.

Other than Obama at 5.00pm GMT today the major influence should be the release of the German ZEW survey of economic sentiment and current conditions, neither figure expected to be particularly inspiring.

This might be a reason to take profits on recent Euro/Sterling gains.

We also have Mervyn King making a speech at a CBI event during which it will be anticipated that he make reference to recent events in the economy.

Again, there are no major data releases from the US

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Global consensus on interest rates?

Wise Money is not sure if its just wishful thinking but opinion appears to be growing that some sort of fledgling agreement to co-ordinate a Global-wide cut in interest rates was hatched at last week's meeting in Sao Paolo.

If this is correct then expect to see an announcement as part of the G20 Heads of State communique at the close of this weekend's summit in Washington and lower interest rates all round come next week.

Not sure if the gradual acceptance of this possible development was the sole reason for the massive turn round in Wall Street's fortunes last night but the bounce in US share prices was massive (DJIA up 6.67% and NASDAQ up 6.5%) and a positive impact on other stock markets has been/is being seen.

As I mentioned before, the problem is that monetary policy tinkering (albeit with a capital T) will not work on its own.

In order for the stagnant global economies to benefit from lower rates, we need to see adjustments to fiscal policy plus a return of confidence to the Financial Markets and here is where the problem lies.

The big player at the table is the US of course, who are presently in a complete fiscal mess. While Congress are keen to pass through a large fiscal stimulus package, there is considerable doubt as to whether George Bush will sign it.

The second biggest player is the Eurozone who have no mechanism for the harmonisation fiscal policy and it is obvious to all that there is considerable discord amongst members as to the desirability of any immediate stimulus.

Japan, the third largest in the group, has no scope for any sizeable fiscal adjustment as its debt ratio is far too large for it to be able to push anything meaningful through. In other words it looks very unlikely that any sort of agreement on fiscal stimulus will be reached this weekend and as such, the kick-start will sputter along for a while yet.

It is interesting that the focus of Paulson's bail-out plan for the US banking system has shifted dramatically with concern centred suddenly on consumer demand rather than the Banks' huge portfolios of toxic assets and the fund being used to invest in Financial Institutions rather than just buying toxic assets from them.

This, I suppose, is about as close as we are going to get to a cash injection into the US economy as we are going to get ahead of the change in the US administration in January.

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Stock markets remain main point of focus

Following the minor euphoria from the Joint activities last week, Stock markets again seem to be the main point of focus on the downside.

With further fears of recession, following poor British unemployment data (5.7%, its highest level in eight years), the Fed's beige book reporting weakened economic activity across all states and the U.S. government reporting retail sales falling 1.2% in September (biggest monthly decline in 3 years) this may have been enough to turn the markets negative.

But to ensure the markets did not stay positive/confident for too long Mr Bernanke stated that a marked slowdown will be seen in spending, investment and jobs. Also that market turmoil is a significant threat to growth.

These recession fears led to risk -averse selling with the US dollar benefiting from the purchase of U.S. assets, with the Dollar heading back down.

Also during New York trading we saw the Skandi currencies hit 2 yearly highs against the dollar overnight and this morning EUR/SEK hitting its highest ever official level over 10.000 to 10.1440 due to the lower risk appetite and low liquidity in periphery currencies

This morning we have seen an announcement that Switzerland's two largest banks (Credit Suisse and UBS) will receive billions of francs of emergency funding from the country's government and other investors to shore them up against the financial crisis.

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Stocks plummet as global turmoil continues

There was further turmoil in the global stock markets yesterday, as stocks plummeted to their lowest levels as the credit crisis deepens in Europe.

UK stocks suffered their worst falls since Black Monday in 1987 with the FTSE 100 falling by 7.8%, In the US the Dow Jones fell below 10,000 for the first time since Oct 2004 and the S&P 500 fell by 2.3% to 1,073.81, its lowest level since Aug 2004.

There is now increased speculation that Central Banks around the world will reduce interest rates in order to cushion their economies from the credit freeze. The market now deems there to be a greater probability that the BoE will cut rates this Thursday by up to 50bps.

Overnight Australia's Central Bank cut its benchmark rate by 1%, twice the amount that was predicted, to 6%.

The unwinding of carry trades saw the yen strengthen against a range of higher yielding currencies. As volatility increased yesterday funds were converted into yen, the currency in which funds are initially borrowed to transact the trade.

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One step forward, two steps back

The various Markets started down the road that is the second half of the year with some optimism but got hit by another almighty truck speeding towards them. Equity. Bond, Commodity and Currency Markets all spent the day on the defensive amid widespread wailing and wringing of hands.

Stock Markets are having a torrid time with both the FTSE and Dow just a smidge away from entering respective official bear markets, indicated by a fall of 20% from the previous peak (FTSE is currently down 18.5%).

The NIKKEI last night closed after its 10th consecutive day of losses, the longest sequence since 1965 having lost about 8% of its value during this period. This morning sees UK stocks already under pressure with both Construction and Retail sectors under pressure – M&S pontificating that retail conditions will remain grim for the next 2-years.

Dissonance reigns in Europe over the ECB decision on interest rates scheduled for Thursday lunchtime. The Central Bank have manoeuvred themselves into a corner over the decision on raising rates having already primed the Markets for such a move.

Politicians however can see the writing on the wall and have been voluble in their questioning the wisdom of such a move. With economic data from Eurozone very much on a down, the hiking of rates is unlikely to go down well across the region.

In the UK, data was also negative with the PMI lower than expected (45.8 ag exp 49.8) to a 7-year low, house prices fell for the 8th straight month declining at their sharpest rate since December 1992 – according to the Nationwide Building Society and Sterling accordingly dipped down to 1.26 against the Euro.

The only currency that fared worse than the pound was the US Dollar which suffered at the hands of a continued rise in crude oil prices (Israeli sabre-rattling towards Iran in response to the latter's nuclear programme) and the decline in the Global economy.

Cable briefly hit 2.00, but very briefly. By the time you had said "€˜I will have some Dollars there please' it was heading lower.

The quandary for market participants is for everything that you sell, you need something to buy.

On that basis the high yield commodity based currencies might have some latent strength in them and I particularly like the prospects for the Norwegian Krone with oil reserves, independence and relatively high interest rates. We will see.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

Soros - We face the most serious recession of our lifetime

George Soros, the phenomenally successful billionaire hedge fund manager, has said that "we face the most serious recession of our lifetime".

In short, he made his feeling perfectly clear, by saying that the United States and Britain are facing a recession of a scale greater than the early - 1990s and greater even than the 1970s.

He pointed towards the 1970s dislocations when commenting that current market conditions are worse because of the implications of the house price decline, which there wasn't in the 1970s.

Soros, who warned of the dire consequences facing the American economy years ago, when the housing bubble was still inflating, said about the UK "House prices have risen over the years and are further away from sustainable levels than in practically any other country, in terms of house indebtedness and the relationship incomes. The slump may be more gentle that the US, but it will be more drawn out".

The dollar inched back towards one-month lows against a basket of currencies today, as oil prices were near record highs and the deteriorating U.S. economy.

Activity is expected to pick up today as investors return from long weekends in both the United States and Britain, with the market looking to oil prices and stocks for clues on the dollar's near-term direction.

Expectations of the US dollars longer term direction in particular against the euro, is that we see could it rise towards the end of the year, as Federal Reserve is done with interest-rate reductions and may raise borrowing costs next year.

The U.S. currency on April 22 reached a record low of $1.6019 per euro as the Fed decreased its benchmark rate seven times since September to 2 per-cent to spur economic growth. The dollar has plunged almost 44 percent against the euro since the start of 2002.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars rose on speculation the extra yields offered by the nations' bonds attracted investors. The Australian dollar traded near the highest level in 25 years, whilst the New Zealand dollar climbed for an eighth day, in its longest rally in 14 month.

Crude oil rose above $133 a barrel as a militant attack in Nigeria disrupted supplies and on speculation fuel subsidies in Asian countries will continue to spur demand.

Gold was little changed after gaining in the past two days as higher crude oil prices and the dollar's weakness against the euro bolstered demand for the precious metal as a hedge against inflation.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

Currency rates stabilised as Yen carry trades strengthen

The yen recovered further ground as equities came well off their highs, with the positive sentiment following the US Federal Reserve's 50 basis point discount rate cut on Friday beginning to wane.

The Japanese currency suffered in the wake of Friday's Fed announcement, coming well off the two and a half month highs reached against the dollar late last week as a measure of risk appetite began to return to the market.

This trend had reversed moderately yesterday, however, with most feeling that the boost to equities and risky assets from the Fed's move, which most have interpreted as a prelude to a cut in interest rates next month, will be short lived.

Trading continues to be jittery, with a great deal of uncertainty remaining as to just how deep-rooted the credit crisis is, the extent to which it will spread to the wider economy and whether central banks can ease the problems significantly.

There is a general lack of conviction in the markets right now, and that will not change until we get to the end of the week, and traders can see whether or not US markets have the resilience to hold in, or whether last week's dent in investor confidence, and the official 10 % correction is something more than that.

Among currencies, the yen as a low-yielding currency has been the main beneficiary of the recent turmoil as a result of the credit crisis as investors rapidly unwound risky carry trades, where money is borrowed in low-yielding currencies in order to invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere.

Meanwhile, the euro and the pound held onto gains against the dollar garnered on Friday after the Fed discount rate cut, as the US currency had gained support from safe haven flows during the financial turmoil.

The pound was further buoyed yesterday after figures from the Bank of England revealed an unexpected rise in its broad M4 measure of money supply during July, as well as strong public finances data.

There were also solid mortgage lending figures from the British Bankers Association and the Council of Mortgage Lenders, although these were offset slightly by soft numbers from the Building Societies Association.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

Feds action on Friday- is it a sign of more to come?

In a surprise move on Friday, the Federal Reserve cut the interest rate it charges on direct Fed loans to banks by a half-percentage point to 5.75.

The Fed’s actions followed a month-long slide of more than 1,100 points on the Dow Jones industrial average and eased credit shortage fears in the equities market.

The discount rate is normally set 100bp over Fed funds, so the penalty is now reduced to 50bp but this is not the only significant factor in the Fed’s actions. Borrowing at the discount widow is typically overnight, but now 30 days is acceptable and renewable, so the loan can be extended indefinitely.

Concerns about who might hold dreaded subprime-related assets in their portfolios left many lenders suspicious and wary of handing over money. The Fed’s message to the financial community seems to be, it is safe to lend as normal, and the central bank will be standing close by.

Speculation is a favourite pastime for the financial community and last week provided some particularly juicy commentary. Is the Fed preparing to act in its role as lender to a financial institution if one were in trouble? Is the Fed laying the groundwork for an interest rate cut?

Despite U.S. reports that it will maintain a moderate pace of growth, the credit market turmoil is fuelling fears of recession.

Asian markets rallied sharply today, realising some of their biggest one-day gains this year as the Federal Reserve’s cut in the U.S. discount rate calmed fears of an economic slow down.

The yen steadied against the U.S. dollar in early trade this morning and it is predicted that if financial markets settle down this week it is likely that the yen will give back some of the ground it made up during last week’s carry trade unwinding.

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Markets calm after massive drops but will this continue

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke confirmed his positive outlook on economic growth and indicated that the latest move in stock prices will not alter the Fed’s plans for monetary policy.

Yet real concerns about the US economy still remain. We saw the largest percentage drop in new home sales in 13 years. The significant aspect of this is that the supply of new home sales increased which suggest the worst is yet to come. The Chicargo PMI was also down from an anticipated 50.0 to 47.9.

After yesterday's drop in world markets leaders came out to assure investors and try to calm the massive sell off. Starting with the Chinese government, officials at the Ministry of Finance reassured international investors that they are not planning to take some heat off the economy by enacting a capital gains tax.

Investors felt that tighter restrictions on foreign investment would inhibit potential growth. In the US, members of the NYSE attributed the collapse in the Dow to a computer glitch and not necessarily mass bearish sentiment.

The Euro was hit yesterday predominantly due to the rebound in the dollar despite positive data from the Eurozone. German Unemployment rate dropped from 9.5% to 9.3% and consumer confidence improved in the Eurozone region despite the prospects for another interest rate hike and the increase to Germany’s Value Added Tax.

Sterling was stronger across the board thanks to solid housing market data. The UK’s Nationwide Building Society reported 0.7% rise in house prices in the month of February. The market was looking at a 0.5% rise.

Bank of England Deputy Governor Lomax warned today that inflation could fall sharply in the months ahead and take the rate below the central bank’s target by the end of the year. Consumer confidence did not improve along with it as the GfK report dropped from -7 to -8.

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Financial markets take massive hits

The Dollar hit a 1 year low against the Japanese Yen and a two month low against the Euro yesterday. Durable goods orders dropped 7.8 percent in the month of January, which was the largest decline in 3 years due mainly to civilian airline orders helping to push orders for non-defense goods.

Orders which are heavily skewed by aircraft fell by 3.1% in January following a downwardly revised 2.8% gain in December. Even though consumer confidence hit a 5 year high and existing home sales increased by the largest amount in 2 years, the drop in durable goods orders was what mattered.

The combination of low inflation, softer growth and problems in the sub-prime lending market will make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again this year

Many eyes will turn to data out today to judge short term dollar moves that may have a longer term bearing. Today we have the USD GDP Annualized q/q at 1.30 followed by the Chicargo PMI at 2.45.

Also today we have Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaking at 3pm and his comments will be closely watched for any indication on future direction.

World stock Markets crashed yesterday sparked by a massive 9% slide on the Shanghai.

Chinese wobbles fed through to Europes markets and by 3pm Germany's main Dax shedded 2.4% with Frances sliding by 2.8% with the FTSE down by 2.4%. Many feel the growing tension with Iran led investors to take some risk off their table.

German CPI accelerated in the month of February even though the rise was slightly softer than expected to 0.4% from an anticipated 0.5%. Also German retail manufacturing activity jumped slightly in the month of January to 45.0 compared to last month's 43.9.

All eyes today will be on Trichet's comments at 2pm.

There was no major data released from the UK yesterday which means that we will have to look ahead to today’s data, including the consumer confidence survey at 10.30am. Earlier this morning we saw the Nationwide Housing price report come in slightly higher than anticipated at 0.7%.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.