WISE MONEY

The British economy is expected to stagnate in the first half of the year according to the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC), with at least one quarter of negative growth expected. A technical recession, two consecutive quarters of negative growth is still a distinct possibility and the BCC warn the UK economy is still in a precarious position.

The government needs to make important decisions and actually act on them to maintain confidence and investment levels, which as promised in the Chancellor’s autumn statement included improving the flow of credit to businesses and infrastructure projects.

Although we are about to see another high speed rail line announced today, the BCC warning is timely, and will hopefully persuade the government that expansionary austerity is not delivering the results that the OBR and Chancellor were hoping for.

The Bank of England has long been suggesting monetary policy cannot be the only tool to lift the economy back towards levels of activity seen before the financial crisis, and will be firmly behind the BCC’s suggestions.

In the MPC meeting on Wednesday and Thursday the main discussion will be whether to expand the QE program.

Further stimulus is probably on the cards, the only question will be when the Bank acts.

For the Pound this means it will come under further pressure against its major trading partners especially the Dollar, which is being boosted from a decent data flow in recent weeks.

With the ECB unlikely to drop interest rates again, the main focus on a busy Thursday will be the exact phrases new ECB chief Mario Draghi uses in his press conference.

The strange relationship between the markets and the head of a central bank means every word uttered is scrutinised in microscopic detail to try to second guess the central banks next move.

Special attention will be given to Mr Draghi when he talks about the ECB plans for bond buying in the secondary market and/or any plans for large scale money creation which it is under pressure to commence but has not yet done so because of intense German opposition.

The ECB is set to flood the eurozone with cheap money on 3 year loan terms.  The money will be lent at the average of the ECB’s benchmark rate- currently one percent over the period of the loan.

Basically this is free money for banks and the aim is to keep the liquidity cycle moving on to companies and households- the danger and likelihood is of course that the banks take a piece of the cake and do not share.

However the aim seems to be to sure up the banks’ capital requirements.

The euro has pushed higher against the US Dollar on speculation for this move- hitting a high of 1.3185 and yields on Spanish and Italian government bonds have dropped.

The USD which is the largest safe haven currency at the moment has also weakened on the positive news; the risk appetite currencies notably the AUD, NZD completed the cycle and gained.

Over to the UK and the Bank Of England as expected voted 9-0 to keep interest rates and Quantitative Easing unchanged in December.

Overall the MPC saw little change for growth and inflation and thus the news was largely positive for the Pound. In addition UK November public sector net borrowing data came in slightly better than expected again helping the Pound.

Looking at the markets after a crazy year we are amazingly at exactly the same levels as 12 months ago for EUR/USD and very similar on GBP/USD after much volatility in the year.

2012 will start with a heavy focus on US payroll numbers on January 6.

In light of further warnings by S&P the ratings agency on the possibility of downgrades to a whole host of European banks as well as the triple-A rating of France and Germany, the wise money markets are beginning to ask if the rating agencies actually matter any more. Why are they six months late to the party?

The market has been asking questions about the health of European banks for long enough for it to be widely accepted, even by the general public.

John Heimann, former vice chairman of Merrill Lynch, suggests the function of the rating agencies is to “visit the field at the end of the battle and shoot the wounded”.

Let’s hope the market shrugs of the news as quickly as the announcement earlier in the week and moves onto the more pressing matters of an ECB interest rate decision today and the announcement tomorrow over further fiscal integration of the eurozone.

Regarding the latter there was fierce debate in the House of Commons yesterday over how any treaty changes would impact on the British economy with several Tory’s including the Mayor of London calling for a referendum on the matter.

The two day meeting has not started but Britain has already been told off by Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the group of euro nations.

He was quoted as saying he does not want the UK setting aside entire pages to say the UK will not do what the others have to do.

Sterling remains relatively unchanged as a storm blows around it, but that may change against both the Dollar and Euro if the ECB, as expected, cut interest rates again.

The Bank of England is certain to keep rates unchanged but may increase the size of the asset purchase scheme (QE) in reaction to the slowdown in the British Economy.

The ratings agency Standard & Poor’s left the growing mood of optimism about the eurozone debt crisis in ruins last night by warning the wise money markets that 15 of the regions 17 countries face credit downgrades if politicians do not gain control of their economies. S&P blasted Brussels “defensive” management of the crisis blaming the prolonged dispute among European policymakers for destroying investor confidence.

All of the AAA rated sovereigns which includes Germany and France have been placed on “negative credit watch”.

S&P highlighted that the French banks were a particular worry as the amount of external debt has risen above France’s GDP.

The timing could hardly have been worse as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy sent investor sentiment soaring earlier.

Their united front had led to a significant drop in the borrowing costs for many of the struggling Eurozone nations including Italy, whose 10 year yields dropped below 6%.

The other announcements due out this week have been made rather insignificant though the central bank meetings due out on Thursday will maintain some weight in the markets.

The Bank of England will keep their base rate on hold at 0.5%, but any comments from the MPC Committee will be looked into.

The ECB will reveal their decision 45 minutes later and they are expected to cut their rate back to the 1% it was reduced to during the height of the credit crunch.

If this is the case, it will show a remarkable turnaround in the fortunes for the eurozone as the interest rates seemed to be on an upward curve in the 2nd quarter of this year.

We are set for an extremely busy and important week for the eurozone.The main event looks set to be the announcement of a deal on fiscal union between member states on Friday night, but what the market expects this deal to look like and what the deal actually looks like may well turn out to be two different things.

What the euro needs is further fiscal integration between members with the plan of a centralised treasury to eventually raise and distribute taxes.

What the French and Germans are likely to propose is the fiscally stronger countries get a greater say in how the weaker periphery run their economies.

Thursday sees the ECB monthly meeting, with another reduction in interest rates expected.

ECB head Mario Dragi has also hinted in a recent speech of large scale bond purchases by the bank.

The much softer tone suggests a deal on government budgets might be closer than the market thinks.

Keeping with all things Europe, we also have a large amount of data to digest this week including eurozone retail sales, German CPI and the closely watched ECB monthly report which will detail the size and scope of lending to European banks by the central bank.

Sterling continues to hold its ground versus the euro and Dollar despite the dire announcement by the Chancellor last week, who downgraded his growth projections for the UK economy.

The resulting changes to the UK outlook now mean the Government will not balance its books until 2016 at the earliest.

The reason for Sterling not pushing lower in the face of a worsening outlook is probably that it is the least bad option in the face of the continuing European problems and the potential for QE3 in the US.

That said the Bank of England looks set to announce an increase to its own asset purchase scheme on Thursday at the MPC meeting.

Governor Mervyn King was in very gloomy mood as his announcement the Banks financial stability report last week and it is likely that the BOE will take action this month rather than waiting for the New Year.

Fairly dovish comments by Bank of England officials and weak data will keep the Pound on the back foot over the short term. BoE governor King highlighted the risk of an inflation undershoot while Fisher noted that the BoE expanded QE by a minimum in October and can do more.

Yesterday’s Autumn statement was a mixed bag for the markets.

George Osborne announced two more years of austerity measures following official figures indicating that the national debt was spiralling out of control due to rising unemployment and flagging economic growth.

Fitch reacted by suggesting that the UK was now the most indebted AAA country in the world with the exception of Uncle Sam who lost their full status earlier this year.

The Greenback was dealt a blow by Fitch, the rating agency, as they changed their outlook on the US AAA long term rating to negative.

Nevertheless, Dollar reaction has been strong, with long positioning moving to multi week highs.

The Dollar could face a struggle from the rumour that the Fed is about to embark on a fresh round of QE by buying mortgage backed securities.

The strong start to the week in terms of risk appetite aided a brief Euro rally but the currency remains susceptible to event risk.

High among them the Eurogroup and Ecofin meetings this week, which will decide whether or not to approve Greece’s next loan tranche as well as EFSF leveraging options.

Development is expected to be restricted leaving the euro defenceless to a fall.

Under the spotlight today will be Italy’s sale of up to EUR 8 billion of Italian Bonds and the likelihood that the country may have to face a yield above the critical 7% threshold.

An increase in funding costs will not bode well for EUR sentiment especially following warnings by Moody’s about potential downgrades to sovereign ratings across the region.

At the time of writing there are rumours of ECB again getting involved in bond purchasing.

EUR/USD failed to follow through on gains overnight but as reflected in the IMM; speculative positioning may have some scope for further short covering given that the net EUR short position reached its highest since June 2010 last week.

Nonetheless, upside potential for EUR/USD is likely to be restricted to resistance around 1.3415.

The UK’s monthly inflation report brought another set of disappointing expectations for Britain’s outlook over the next 3 years. Inflation is expected to fall rapidly in 2012 before dropping below the target rate of 2% in 2013 and 2014.

The report goes on to say the Bank predicts sluggish growth of around 1% for next year with the slump lingering into 2013.

Based on these forecasts and the Monetary Policy Committee’s dovish view, the forecast is for £50 billion more of quantitative easing in early 2012 and a further £25 billion towards the middle of the year.

This is on-top of the extra £75 billion extension to the asset buying programme.

BoE government Sir Mervyn King warned “We have been going through extraordinary times and in such circumstances, there are limits to what domestic monetary policy can achieve”. All in all, a pretty dim look going forward for the UK.

We also had the UK’s Retail Sales figure for the previous month released today showing a 0.6% increase MoM.

This had very little effect on Sterling as the markets are continuing to move on the bigger issue surrounding the European debt crisis.

The euro has remained weak on the back of this while the Greenback has continued to strengthen as investors look for a safer place for their money.

Eurozone politicians already had a lot on their plate this week. Bank recapitalisations look set to happen, albeit on the lower end of the scale, but both the enlargement of the bail-out fund and the size of Greek haircuts both need to be agreed by tomorrow.

Large problems to overcome by themselves, but made even harder because the 17 Euro member countries seem to have annoyed the remaining 10 members of the European union outside the Euro, who for fear of being marginalised now want to be at the crucial meeting on Wednesday.

The 10 countries involved at such an important meeting who, although suffering economically, are not even on the same page as most of the eurozone.

This can only make the decision making process harder, especially if they are only there to look out for their own interests in terms of ceding more power to Brussels.

Naturally the Euro is shrugging off all doubts over its future and continues to trade over 1.39 against the Dollar and is steady from yesterday versus the Pound.

The US Dollar fortunes over the coming days are almost completely tied to the success or failure of the EU meeting tomorrow.

We saw risk on yesterday in the American session with equities up across the board and the corresponding weakness of the Dollar after a decent European morning for the Greenback.

Positive PMI data from China and decent earnings lifted sentiment that has carried through to early trading today.

The British economy may already be contracting according to Martin Weale of the Bank of England’s MPC, who suggests 4th quarter growth in the UK, estimated at zero anyway, may be negative and indicate the onset of a double dip recession.

No doubt also justifying the MPC decision for further QE, Mr Weale was also much bolder than usual.

MPC interviews and highlights the real concern at the Bank that as things may be set to get significantly worse for the UK over the next year.

Bank of England governor Mervyn King was in a gloomy mood last night as he addressed an Institute of Directors meeting in Liverpool. Justifying the BOE’s recent resumption of Quantitative Easing (QE), he warned that Britain’s economic recovery had been destabilised by events in the eurozone and urged European leaders to urgently recapitalise the banking system to restore market confidence.

He also took aim at surplus countries – read Germany and China – suggesting those countries running large positive trade balances need to share the responsibility of getting out the current mess by expanding domestic demand and letting deficit countries increase exports and service debt repayments.

This is not the first time that the Gov has wagged a disapproving finger in the direction of Germany and China, but combined with his gloomy outlook and yesterday’s inflation figure the whole situation looks fairly grim and Sterling remains under pressure this morning against both the Euro and US Dollar.

Several high profile businesses in the US either reported losses or missed profit estimates and this is weighing on sentiment.

Corporate profitability has been a beacon in a sea of gloom over the past few years and any sign of margins beginning to fall will be extremely negative for equity markets and risk assets like Sterling and the commodity currencies.

Reports continue to be rife about the size of the EFSF, with reports yesterday evening suggesting €2 trillion is the figure that has been decided on, news which has lifted the Euro across the board overnight.

But it still remains utter speculation, some think the number will be deliberately exaggerated to grab headlines, but given that this remains in large part a physiological battle between politicians and the markets, the larger the better in our opinion.

A QE3 could still be launched according to the Federal Reserve minutes released last night, with two on the ten strong FOMC committee suggesting the current US economic outlook could justify stronger policy action. Operation twist is aimed at keeping down long term interest rates by selling shorter term notes to buy longer dated maturities, but how successful this policy will be at keeping the economic recovery going is unclear at this stage.

Which is why the much more potent QE3 is being kept in the wings should we see another deterioration in outlook.

The news has gone some way in tempering the recent Dollar strength we have seen against Sterling and the Euro alongside investors regaining their risk appetite over the past few days.

Bank recapitalisations in Europe are fast becoming the new battle front between the banks and governments, with the head of Deutsche Bank saying the lender will do everything in its power to avoid a forced recapitalisation.

Interestingly Mr Akerman suggested that pressure from governments to hold eurozone bonds had cost the bank close to €400 million this year alone.

The Euro continues its tear higher on the back of higher than expected German CPI this morning, the ECB is heavily influenced by the German inflation hawks and so if inflation continues to climb over Europe the probability of the ECB cutting rates begins to fall.

Disappointing unemployment figures yesterday in the UK had surprisingly little impact against the Dollar and Euro.

The number is extremely worrying, given jobs are the lifeblood of the economy, and lend weight to the Bank of England’s thinking over further QE.

We can expect the jobs situation of get worse before it gets better – especially in light of the looming government cuts ramping up next year.