Labour’s last budget the main focus for Sterling this week

The UK’s attention is very much centred on Wednesday’s budget statement from Alistair Darling – very likely to be his last even if the Labour government are somehow returned to power.

The press is full of helpful advice for the Chancellor, mostly telling him what NOT to do, and there is so much of this that the statement itself might well set a record for brevity.

He is assumed to have the ‘good news’ to tell of a reduction in estimates for the UK’s borrowing requirement for this year and the next few years to come and will probably upgrade his growth estimates on the back of last quarter’s GDP figure and the predicted estimate for this quarter’s number.

Which could be Sterling positive in the short spell on or around delivery but the cloudy outlook for the whole political situation at present is more likely to leave investors wary and hence leave the currency vulnerable.

Today sees the opening of the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, primarily to discuss the Greek economy, the effect the current crisis is having upon the wider Eurozone region and possible solutions to solve said problems.

Though the eu being the eu, whether anything concrete will actually be delivered is unlikely.

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Good news finally boosts the Pound

The number of Britons claiming unemployment benefits fell unexpectedly by 32,300 in February against the expectation for a rise of 8,000.

January’s reported rise of 23,500 was also slashed to 5,300. This fall is the biggest monthly fall since November 1997 and the claimant count rate eased to 4.9%- the lowest since August 2009.

This is timely feedback on the job sector for the Labour government as we draw nearer to election day. Although the data is certainly encouraging we should not carried away as there is still a significant risk of a stuttering recovery.

The labour market is still adjusting to fragile market conditions and this will lead to schisms in employment data. Looking forward we still have the threat of sharp public sector cuts which will lead to a rise in unemployment going forward.

The Pound has welcomed the news by rallying sharply against the US Dollar and the Euro- gaining over 1% against the USD and 0.8% against the euro. This is a welcome relief rally for the pound which has been on the ropes especially since the beginning of March.

The pound was also lifted by the MPC minutes which showed a vote of 9-0 to hold interest rates and QE. The unanimous decision has helped ease fears of further QE and division within the MPC.

The euro has held its neck above 1.37 today after testing over 1.38.

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Sterling sinks below 1.50 again

The consolidation period for Sterling did not last long with overnight Asian trading and so far this morning it has been under selling pressure again. 
The reason for the fall today has again been attributed to narrowing polls showing that Labour and conservatives are “neck and neck”. 
In addition credit rating agency Fitch has stated that the UK sovereign credit profile has deteriorated and Moody’s has warned that some UK banks could face downgrades. 
To top it off we have received poor economic data with UK RICS house price balance coming in weaker than expected and the UK January trade balance was also weaker than anticipated.

Elsewhere the euro has come under some pressure too against the USD and the JPY. 
Although the Greece situation is becoming yesterday’s news, there are a number of other economies to replace Greece such as Portugal and Italy for starters. Expect the euro to remain under pressure for the foreseeable future.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

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Sterling crashes through 1.50 to US Dollar

After being sold aggressively across the currency markets yesterday the markets have taken a breather and we now await the next move. 
The political focus with the opinion polls over the weekend indicating that the chances of a hung parliament were much higher. A hung parliament may actually prove successful, however the markets do not like uncertainty and the consensus is that a coalition government will have less political clout to push through the decisive decisions especially in relation to tough fiscal planning which is inevitable.
The Conservatives have come out of the traps today stating that protecting the AAA status is central to their plans- however some feel their proposed aggressive cuts will be detrimental to recovery. 
 
On the other hand Labour propose to wait and cut later but waiting too long could mean that the horse has already bolted and the AAA rating could be lost. So this uncertainty and division is leading to a weaker pound. 
 
Yes this could be good for the UK economy and for recovery but there is a fine line between a weaker pound and the loss of confidence in Sterling and the UK economy- this would lead to a sharp rise in import prices and inflationary pressure especially if commodity prices remain high- not good; this would spill into a pressure on the UK gilt markets and inevitably the UK losing the AAA rating adding yet more pressure. 
 
So you can see the problem that uncertainty is creating. The Pound needs to get back above the psychological 1.50 level against the US Dollar. 

Sterling also lost yesterday on the purchase by Prudential of AIG’s Asian business which led to further selling of GBP and buying of USD in the light of this purchase. 

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

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Which is the weaker- Yen or Sterling?

Both Sterling and the Yen are being seriously undermined by both political and economic concerns and are racing each other towards the edge of the precipice.

On the Japanese political front, the replacement of Fujii by Kan as Finance Minister was not greeted enthusiastically and as mentioned yesterday the Yen took a little dip in value. 

The major concern, was that the Japanese bond market might take flight and the ability of the Ministry of Finance to satisfy the country’s massive debt mountain could become compromised. 
Added to this, the first official comments from Kan were distinctly Yen negative with him saying he wants the Yen to weaken further (it fell immediately from 91.10 to 91.75) and then adding that many Japanese firms favour the $/Yen rate at 95.00 and that he must work with the Bank of Japan to bring the Yen to appropriate levels. 
Beat that lot, sterling …. Well it did try its best.

On the UK political front, the call from the 2 cabinet members for a secret ballot of Labour MPs to establish Gordon Brown’s position as leader of the party was viewed very negatively by the market on the assumption that a leadership battle this close to the election would be the final nail in the coffin for the Labour party but also, might be enough distraction for them to take their eye off the economy. 

Following on from this, there is a report in the Times this morning headed up, “Cash-strapped Treasury contemplates shining up gilts” which ponders the possibility that the Government might be forced to offer higher returns on its gilts in an attempt to maintain their investment appeal. 
This will obviously have the effect of further increasing the cost of servicing the country’s borrowings from the current forecast of £60 billion per year – and that is just the interest component.

Old Black Eyebrows is seeking to sell a record £225 billion tranche of debt this year at the same time as the Bank of England look to offload the bonds that it acquired via the Asset Purchase Scheme as part of the QE process and against the back-drop of investor concern over the UK’s status as a AAA rated sovereign. 

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

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Euro even weaker than Sterling

The euro has again moved lower against the majors and in particular against the US Dollar moving down to 1.4523 overnight and overall down 500 points from recent highs. 
The cause of the downturn has been attributed to the recent jitters in Greece and more recently in Austria. 
The Greek prime minister commented yesterday that Greece does not have much time and must take tough decisions within the next three months- decisions that have been left for decades.  
In a very direct address he stated that “we must change or sink” and vowed that he will tax the bonuses of Greek bankers by 90%- move over Alistair Darling!

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

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Pre budget nerves for sterling

The Pre Budget Report will set out government plans for tackling the UK deficit and also define growth forecasts. 
A big factor will be how the government plans to reduce the deficit which is a major issue for the UK economy and the next government- expect lots of political sabre rattling as Darling attempts to set out a fiscal election strategy. 
The labour government has promised to cut the deficit in half within 4 years and the market will want to see a viable plan for this to give comfort to sterling. 
Other items could include a change in the growth forecasts, cuts in spending and increased taxes- possibly on bankers bonuses or even banking institutions…Darling says his plan will maintain credibility with investors, while protecting people most vulnerable to the recession- it needs to.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

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Banks reform toothless and muddled say MPs

The labour Government’s white paper on financial regulation earlier this month was toothless and failed to address the key weaknesses in the Tripartite system, according to MPs on the Treasury Select Committee.

Issuing its final report on the banking crisis yesterday, the committee said it was still a “muddle” which part of the tripartite — made up of the Bank of England, Financial Services Authority (FSA) and Treasury — was in charge of strategic decisions.

The Treasury’s white paper proposed a new Council for Financial Stability, chaired by the Chancellor, which will oversee the Tripartite. This is just a “cosmetic” change, the Treasury Select Committee said.

The new council will be in addition to the Financial Stability Committee, which sits within the Bank.

The White Paper also gave more power to the Bank to monitor overarching stability — so-called macro-prudential regulation — but did not make it clear how that power would be separate from the responsibilities of the FSA.

“Where before no-one had a formal responsibility for financial stability, now many do — the Bank of England, the FSA, the Treasury, the Council for Financial Stability and the Bank’s Financial Stability Committee. Where responsibility lies for strategic decisions and executive action was, and remains, a muddle” the report said.

John McFall, the committee’s chairman, also said that the Government should not rule out imposing a split between retail and investment banking.

Such a measure, which would echo the restrictions imposed in the 1930s in the US under the Glass-Steagall Act, has been widely criticised among banks which argue that the law is outdated.

But Mr McFall said that banks have been able to “hold the taxpayer to ransom” by growing so large that they present a serious systemic threat, making it impossible for the Government to do anything but bail them out during the downturn.

In order to prevent banks from becoming so large again, the Government should “not rule out drastic action, such as forcibly shrinking the banks or separating out the riskier functions,” Mr McFall said.

Separately, the House of Commons’ Scottish Affairs committee said yesterday that the FSA failed to provide the “necessary level of supervision” over Dunfermline to prevent the downfall of Scotland’s largest building society.

It was the fault of Dunfermline’s board that the mutual embarked on risky lending on commercial property and buying loan books from other lenders, the committee said, but added that the FSA failed to issue “clear and specific warnings”.

The FSA rejected the charge, saying that it had written to Dunfermline in December 2005 soon after a regulatory “Arrow” visit, identifying the growing size of its commercial lending portfolio as a risk.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

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UKFI to outline plans for bank investments after losing £11 billion

UK Financial Instruments (UKFI), the body that manages the Government’s shares in some of Britain’s biggest banks, today admitted that it is sitting on paper losses of £10.9 billion.

The body, which is in charge of the Government’s 70 per cent stake in Royal Bank of Scotland and its 43 per cent holding in Lloyds Banking Group, also refused to give an indication of when it expected to dispose of the shares in the lenders.

The UKFI said today that every household in the country has more than £3,000 invested in Lloyds and RBS shares

The UKFI said: “Our own task of returning these investments to the private sector is challenging.

“The amounts involved are very large, and a successful disposal of our holdings will require professionalism and patience.”

The losses in the banks is less than the £18.1 billion shortfall revealed in February.

UKFI’s report makes clear that it could be years before RBS and Lloyds are back in private ownership, although the ultimate decision on any disposal will be taken by the Treasury.

It adds that the most likely exit for the labour Government will be through an initial public offering of the stakes.

“While there are many possible approaches open to us, including strategic sales, our central assumption in thinking about our disposal programme is that we are likely to be selling shares to investors in the public equity markets,” said the government body this morning.

The Government’s stakes in RBS and Lloyds will increase when the Treasury’s insurance scheme — the Asset Protection Scheme — kicks in. At that stage, taxpayers will probably own more than 80 per cent of RBS and more than 60 per cent of Lloyds.

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UK’s debt will quadruple unless drastic steps are taken, says S&P

Britain’s national debt will quadruple to peaks only ever seen in the wake of the Second World War unless the labour Government takes drastic steps to address the pensions and ageing crisis, Standard & Poor’s has warned.

The ratings agency has calculated privately that the UK’s public sector debt could quadruple from its current level of just over 50pc of economic output to 200pc or above within the next four decades as the cost of servicing public sector pensions, ballooning social security costs and healthcare burdens becomes overwhelming, The Sunday Telegraph has learned.

The warning is doubly sobering since S&P; last month placed Britain’s debt on to “negative outlook” – an explicit signal that it could soon be downgraded.

Although the agency calculated two years ago that the effects of an ageing population, alongside high pensions and healthcare costs could push Britain’s net debt up above 150pc by 2050, it now fears the added cost of the financial crisis means the debt mountain could in fact rival that in 1945, when the cost of fighting a world war pushed debt well beyond 200pc of GDP.

The warning coincides with research showing that the true size of the UK’s unfunded public sector pensions deficit, which needs to be funded through taxpayer’s cash, is now £1,177bn – a staggering £20,000 for every person in the UK.

A study for the highly respected British North American Committee, written by former Bank of England economist Neil Record, finds that the UK shortfall is far more severe than in the US or Canada.

The contents of this blog are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The Wise Money Blog cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

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