WISE MONEY

German Chancellor Angela Merkel told Davos-”We need a big rethink”.Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel has told the World Economic Forum that a “big rethink” is needed in the eurozone within the global economy.

“Structural reforms that lead to more jobs are essential,” she told delegates at the Swiss resort of Davos. “Do we dare to be more European?”

The eurozone is still struggling with a sovereign debt crisis and is trying to agree reform to its political system.

But many want Germany and other nations to boost the size of their rescue fund.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) wants the eurozone to inject more cash into its rescue fund.

The IMF wants the sum available for bailouts to grow beyond 500bn euros (£416 billion) to ensure talks between private creditors and Greece do not grind to a halt.

The situation is urgent according to the IMF, which recently predicted that the economic growth rate in Europe could halve this year from an earlier estimate of 3.3% if the eurozone crisis remains unsolved.
Lessons learnt

Mrs Merkel disagrees with Ms Lagarde about what is needed.

“We have said right from the start that we want to stand up for the euro, but what we don’t want is a situation where we are forced to promise something that we will not be able to fulfil,” she said.

Mrs Merkel said that the austerity reforms being enacted – currently being felt from the Irish Republic to Italy – had to be balanced with reforms of how Europe is governed.

Mrs Merkel also acknowledged “tensions” between countries that have adopted the euro and those that have not inside the European Union (EU).

Given that the main euro paymasters Germany- and the IMF disagree on how to solve the euro credit crunch- there is only one way this story is going to go.

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Against all the odds the single European currency has been resilient this week moving up towards the year to date highs of 1.3068, clawing back its losses and more.

The euro’s ability to defend bad news in Europe has been remarkable and its gains have reflected a speculative market that has been extremely short.

As we are light on headline data today the markets will have to observe the outcome of the somewhat positive Spanish and French debt auctions while keeping one eye on Greek debt talks with private investors.

But for yet another failure of talks in Greece the EUR should continue on a positive footing.

How long this will last is uncertain, particularly given the dangers ahead but at a time when investors have become progressively more bearish on the euro it may just extend its bounce over the short term.

One country to watch is Portugal whose bonds have underperformed recently as markets speculate that it could be the next contender for any debt note.

Back to the UK and Retail sales have come been announced close to median forecasts of +0.6% m/m and +2.6y/y.

Sales have improved in December but the improvement is likely to be short-lived, suggesting any support to the Pound will be brief.

Sterling has underperformed even against the firmer EUR of late but this is supporting better levels for the market to take long positions versus EUR.

This explains the move in relative European/US interest rate differentials, which has been linked with the move in EUR/GBP.

Overall Sterling could outperform EUR over coming months to around 0.80, with the former continuing to benefit from the simple fact that it is not in the Eurozone and has therefore acquired a quasi safe haven status.

The recent rally in the euro was very surprising given the lack of any positive or even specific euro related news over the past couple of days. Market sentiment about the single currency remains low (after a temporary blip last week) because a Greek default is looming ever larger and European policy makers are still arguing over the rules that they hope will make the eurozone less weak moving forward.

In fact short positions (betting that the euro will fall in value) hit record highs over the past couple of weeks, which suggests there recent rally is more about shorts covering their positions, leading to the price of the euro rising forcing other shorts to cover, commonly known as a short squeeze.

If, as is likely, this explains the recent uptick in the euro and so we can expect more euro selling to resume once the squeeze runs out of steam.

Data for the eurozone for the rest of the week is extremely light, with the ECB monthly report showing how much the ECB is lending to stricken banks is due Thursday along with French and Spanish bond auctions.

Both auctions will be closely watched in light of the S&P downgrades on Friday.

Sterling has been fairly steady in the early part of the week.

UK Retail sales are the only release of note for the rest of the week but worth noting because they report over key Christmas period for the retailers and will probably give a good idea to the market if the UK economy is heading for (or is already in) another recession.

The US bank holiday on Monday has meant the US Dollar has also been fairly quiet so far this week, but Thursday and Friday sees a large amount of US data including the CPI figure, which should hopefully give the market an end of week shot of much needed direction in an otherwise rudderless few days.

A new shockwave filtered through the markets on Friday as the credit agency Standard & Poors (S&P)- downgraded France, stripping them of its prized AAA rating. The decision to remove this vital asset in keeping borrowing costs to a minimum left France with a AA+ rating, a judgment that will likely cost billions in higher repayment costs.

S&P said “Europe’s austerity and budget discipline alone were not sufficient to fight the debt crisis and may become self defeating”.

Alongside France, S&P cut the rating of Italy, Spain, Cyprus, Portugal, Austria, Slovakia, Slovenia and Malta though it was expected that these countries would have their ratings lowered.

Overall, the picture isn’t looking good for Europe and with further downgrades likely over the next few months, it will be important to see how the ECB reacts in keeping this ongoing debt crisis under control.

The main winner from this continues to be the US Dollar with further gains against most currencies likely as investors pile more money into the global reserve currency.

For as long as the Greenback keeps this status, it will remain the market leader in these testing times as Europe sits on a knife edge between growth and recession.

There is very little data out today with the only comment of note coming from a speech by ECB President Mario Draghi due at 6pm UK Time.

It is likely he will focus on the downgrade on France and how the ECB will look to repair the damage it has caused.

A fresh wave of negative sentiment swept the wise money markets caused by doubts over euro banks’ capital raising plans and Hungary’s solvency.

This led to investors selling shares in the continent’s major lenders. Italy’s biggest bank, UniCredit saw its share price fall by over 17% after it announced a heavily discounted rights issue, which valued stock at less than a third of it current price.

Over in Hungary, the yield on 10 year bonds soared to over 10% after the government failed to find enough buyers for the 45bn forints (£116 million) of sovereign bonds it was trying to sell. This combination of weakness in the Eurozone led to the single currency dropping to 15 month lows against Sterling.

This weakness in Europe was countered by positive data from both the UK and US.

The UK’s biggest sector, services ended last year on a high while America’s efforts to improve their jobs market showed signs of progress.

The US private sector added 325,000 new jobs in December and the non-farm payrolls are due out today with a rise of 150,000 jobs expected.

Overall, it has been a simple week for the markets with the euro continuing to be weak while the US Dollar remains the strongest of all as investors put their money into the global reserve currency.

Festive cheer in the money market seem to be running out already as we move towards the end of the first trading week of 2012. Disappointing Italian and Spanish PMI data more than offset a decent German figure and the eurozone is looking more and more likely to be heading into another recession.

The euro was under pressure for most of yesterday as risk was dumped and the US Dollar strengthened.

The theme is continuing this morning as the single currency continues to be sold; European banks continue to make headlines for the wrong reasons as they park newly created ECB cash back at the central bank rather than lending or investing it in the real economy.

Retail gloom continues to hang over the UK with many of the retailers reporting crucial Christmas figures this week.

Next shares were pummelled after they reported disappointing sales over the festive period and set a gloomy tone as we wait for results from rivals M&S.

John Lewis were a ray of light in the gloom, posting impressive sales growth compared to last year, but most if not all retailers are suggesting that economic conditions remain a real concern and are expecting a challenging year.

The Pound has opened the year in much the same way as it finished the last, namely taking a back seat to the Euro and Dollar with economic fundamentals remain less of a driver than politics.

The wise money is hoping for a clear sign of the economic picture on Friday from the Non-farm payrolls, either showing the recovery continuing or a worsening picture and the prospect of further QE this year.

More likely is that the number shows the US economy to the chugging along slowly, leaving both the Fed and the markets disappointed.

The euro has opened lower this morning, sitting below the critical 1.30 barrier as markets remain nervous as to the steps that the eurozone will take to curb the crisis. In major trading, the US Dollar managed to gain further strength last week trading to a low of 1.2860 at the end of 2011, which was the lowest in the final quarter of 2011.

Data from the region, saw manufacturing figures come in from France, Germany and Switzerland, which was higher than previous months for all countries, though not reflecting a drastic expansion as it lay below the median figure of 50.

With regional banks stepping up their deposits in the ECB, panic had started to set in, but the announcement from the ECB last week that these deposits were receding, have calmed fears momentarily.

We have had some positive data from Germany, as far as unemployment figures go, pushing the euro towards the critical support level of 1.30 against the greenback.

As we go into the week, we expect further data from Europe on Services PMI and construction figures, which will lend to trading patterns of the Euro, intermittently.

We are straight back into a busy week for the US Dollar with ISM manufacturing out this afternoon along with the minutes of the previous Federal Reserve meeting from the 13^th December.

On Friday the US non-farm payroll number is also released, with the consensus for around 150K jobs being added over the previous month.

Today also marks the official start of the presidential elections with the voting beginning in the first republican primary in Iowa. A victory by the favourite, Mitt Romney may mean the race is over before it began with Mr Romney holding a 20 point lead in the next state to vote, New Hampshire.

Only days after gifting european banks nearly half a trillion euros, the European Central Bank (ECB) has reported receiving record cash deposits of 412bn euros (£344 billion). The total beat the previous record of 384 billion euros set in June 2010.

The rising usage of the ECB deposit facility since the summer reflects nervousness among Europe’s banks about lending the money to each other.

The latest jump in deposits comes from cash lent to the banks by the ECB itself last week in order to ward off a fresh banking crisis and credit crunch.

The central bank provided 489 billion euros of its new three year loans just before Christmas, of which banks used some 200 billion euros to repay existing debts.

The rest has gone into cash accounts, including the deposit facility.

Cash from those loans arrived in the banks’ accounts on Friday 23rd- just before Christmas.

The ECB’s decision to offer the three-year loans – as well as a significant broadening of the types of collateral that the ECB would accept from the banks as security for its loans – had appeared to settle financial markets in the run-up to Christmas.

Prior to the ECB’s interventions, there had been growing fears in the international financial community that a major European bank was about to run out of money and go bust, threatening to spark a full blown money market meltdown.

The ECB has in effect had to fill the role of a safe intermediary in the market for short-term lending between the banks – which is crucial to their functioning – by receiving their spare cash as deposits, and then lending it back out to those banks that find themselves short of ready money.

But the banks have to pay a price for the safety provided by the ECB.

They must pay approximately 1% interest on the loans they receive from the central bank, whereas the ECB pays them only 0.25% annualised interest on the spare cash they put in the deposit facility.

European finance minsters are struggling to finalise a plan to give extra money to the IMF, with the plan then to lend the money European governments. The hope was for €200bn to be pledged by euro Area governments plus money from those outside of the Euro including Britain and Sweden, but the amount committed so far is only €150bn.

Britain, quite rightly, feels since the IMF is a global institution any increase in funding should be global in nature and not confined just to European countries.

The constant disappointment the markets are showing over the lack of any clear resolution is keeping the Euro depressed and stock markets on the back foot.

Traders hoping for a Santa Claus rally look set to be disappointed as the markets wind down into Christmas.

You can tell the various statistic agencies are also preparing for a two week break, as data releases this week are few and far between.

The Bank of England minutes are due tomorrow and continue to be important in gauging when the MPC will expand its QE program, currently expected to be early next year.

Finalised Q3 GDP numbers are also due on Friday expected to show 0.5% growth, not enough to stop the UK re-entering a technical recession in the first quarter of next year.

US Q3 GDP is also due on Thursday along with durable goods orders which will almost certainly show the US economy plodding along at a rate neither low enough to force the Fed to act or improving enough to warrant withdrawal of the current monetary stimulus.

Expect the Dollar to hold on to its strength into the New Year.

The US dollar has gained against the majority of its peers after confirmation came from North Korean state television that leader Kim Jong II had died of a heart attack. The US Dollar gained due to its attraction as a safe haven currency as fear is now growing that instability may arise in the region. The Yen fell against the USD as concern rose for Japan’s economy and security as destabilization of the Korean peninsula will now be a concern.

The Euro has seen no real improvement and is still floundering against the USD. This week the concern for the Euro remains that some of the regions largest economies may have their credit ratings slashed. So we have fear mode prevailing in the markets with the USD akin to gold as it soaks up demand from investors with a lack of appetite as we close the year.

The huge demand for the US Dollar as a safe haven does to a large extent dumb down the fact that the US was stripped of its AAA credit rating by S&P four months ago- maybe Europe need not worry about downgrades!

Mario Draghi the ECB president has certainly not helped ease concerns for Europe as he breached the taboo subject of discussing a Euro break up. His point in discussing was that countries who exit the euro will suffer more than if they remained.

He also sought to play down the ECB’s role in suring up the debt crisis; the financial markets are looking for a more prominent role by the ECB to effectively end the crisis and Draghi has sidestepped this potential solution consistently.

For this week, we will see final readings on third quarter growth for the US, UK and France with no changes expected. On Wednesday we have the Bank Of England minutes and the markets will be looking for more clues on further QE for the UK.

However in reality economic numbers will be of little importance this week as investors shelve risk and await the new year payroll number from the US on Jan 6.